Moderate consumption growth may not last

We calculate that, after falling by 0.8% m/m in April, retail sales volumes rebounded strongly in May. In addition, recent employment gains and lower gasoline prices likely supported retail sales in June. Overall, we estimate that second-quarter consumption grew by a moderate 1.5% annualised, up from the paltry 0.9% in the previous quarter. We are less sure than before about whether this moderate pace of consumption growth will be sustained longer term.