China Economics Weekly Fewer rate cuts but fiscal easing won’t come to the rescue China's central bank left the loan prime rates on hold today. With higher oil prices set to keep the economy out of deflationary territory, we're now only expecting the central bank to deliver one... 20th March 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China bans fuel exports to avert shortages While China can’t avoid paying higher prices for imported crude, as a net exporter of refined petroleum products it can turn to trade barriers to shield itself from the soaring mark-up on these... 13th March 2026 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly NPC Press Conference: a little domestic rebalancing… Today's press conference for the heads of senior economic and financial ministries made clear that, while the leadership is looking to drive some degree of domestic rebalancing towards consumption... 6th March 2026 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly NPC and Five-Year Plan: What to watch China's leadership will lay out its economic policy agenda for this year, as well as its goals for the 15th Five Year Plan period (2026-30), at the National People's Congress which kicks off on... 27th February 2026 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Economy to plod along in the Year of the Horse Tuesday marked the first day of the Year of the Horse. Horse years are traditionally seen as years of energy and forward momentum but, with policymakers unlikely to loosen the reins much on fiscal... 20th February 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China unlikely to accelerate sales of dollar assets Chinese regulators have reportedly asked banks to curb their exposure to US Treasuries. While Chinese banks' holdings of dollar-denominated bonds have decreased over the past year, they've largely... 13th February 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Local governments plan to keep tightening their belts China’s provincial governments have now concluded the annual meetings at which they set economic targets and lay out fiscal plans. They anticipate slower GDP growth this year and plan to continue with... 6th February 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly End of “three red lines“ won’t revive the property market This week, China’s government ended the “three red lines” regulatory requirements for property developers that sparked China’s property crisis. But this easing is mostly symbolic – it won’t change... 30th January 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Service sector under pressure, demographics worsening If the official GDP data are to be believed, quarter-on-quarter growth picked up in Q4, driven by stronger services activity. But this is at odds with other indicators, which point to weaker momentum... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Breaking down China’s record trade surplus China’s trade surplus hit 1% of global GDP last year, a new record. This was made possible by reorientating trade toward non-U.S. markets, especially ASEAN but also Europe and Africa. It also involved... 16th January 2026 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Beijing to continue insulating domestic chipmakers Beijing's guidance to Chinese firms to stop placing orders for H200 chips is unlikely to reflect an outright ban. Instead, China's leadership looks to be pausing orders as it tries to regulate imports... 9th January 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi set to appreciate further in 2026 The renminbi has made headway recently, both against the US dollar and in trade-weighted terms. With inflation set to remain much lower in China than elsewhere, further nominal appreciation looks... 2nd January 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal pullback weighing on growth Fiscal spending has slowed sharply since October despite ample fiscal space in the current budget, suggesting that local governments have been failing to make full use of the available funds earmarked... 19th December 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly AI infrastructure buildout to ramp up next year While China has remained hot on the heels of the US this year when it comes to AI model development, insufficient chip supply means it has lagged in the construction of the data centres that will be... 12th December 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Leadership signals fiscal priorities for 2026 Improving the allocation of fiscal spending, rather than significantly increasing the scale, looks set to be the government's priority going into next year. That's something that's clearly needed –... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Waning support for developers may drag on construction Vanke's plan to delay repayment of an onshore bond points to fading state support for non-SOE developers. The risk this poses to financial stability is probably manageable. But it threatens to... 28th November 2025 · 6 mins read
