China Economics Weekly Lack of finance undermines Xi’s infrastructure push Today’s Politburo meeting repeated Xi’s recent call for a step-up in infrastructure construction. A shift is already underway on the ground, with spending accelerating. But the scope for even faster... 29th April 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC will embrace the renminbi’s decline The People’s Bank appears to have been pushing against the renminbi’s strength for a while. This week, finally, the market responded. The PBOC doesn’t have much tolerance for sharp market moves and... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Logistics under pressure but virus situation improving China’s economy is still reeling from the impact of COVID-19 restrictions. Although the hit remains most severe in services, disruption to trucking has added pressure to industrial supply chains in... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Housing market revival delayed by outbreak Prior to the latest COVID-19 outbreak, China’s housing market had appeared on the cusp of a rebound. But movement restrictions and weaker consumer confidence have since caused home sales to slump... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Services suffering Incoming data over recent days have been worse than generally expected and probably still don’t fully reflect the extent of current economic disruption in China. The week has ended with some positive... 1st April 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Omicron continues to take a toll Virus cases remain elevated and although authorities appear to be identifying and isolating a rising share of infections, new outbreaks are still popping up in parts of the country. The resulting... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Liu reassures market, lockdowns to stay targeted Liu He's promise this week to be more considerate to market investors in how new policies are communicated and implemented doesn't constitute a fundamental change of direction. Meanwhile, the risk of... 18th March 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly The near-term outlook has deteriorated The National People’s Congress concluded today with a pledge of policy support for the ailing economy from Premier Li. The next dose could come next week, when the PBOC has a chance to lower its MLF... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hong Kong underlines risks of zero-COVID opening Mainland China and Hong Kong both have high vaccination rates in aggregate. But they share a common weakness in having few of their elderly vaccinated. A surge in deaths in Hong Kong is now... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to expect from the NPC Some tips for interpreting the economic plans that will be revealed at the National People’s Congress next Saturday: If you want to know what officials think about the outlook, focus less on the real... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Green shoots in the housing market Local-level support for the property market is stepping up a gear, with down-payment requirements being eased in a handful of cities. This follows national-level efforts to push down mortgage rates... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending disappoints, vaccines pay dividends In some respects, activities around the Lunar New Year holiday were closer to normal this year than last, but tourism spending was still depressed. We expect further monetary easing to be announced in... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly HK virus woes, holiday travel, fiscal support Hong Kong will be an exception to the global pattern that Omicron inflicts less economic damage than earlier virus variants. The city’s zero-COVID policies are proving far less effective than the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Too much of a good thing? The R&D intensity of China’s economy continued to rise last year and is converging toward the levels of advanced economies. But that’s not necessarily a good thing for a country with much lower... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Some relief for property developers This week’s cut to policy rates is one of a succession of recent moves designed to stabilize residential property sales. Developers have also been given a little more breathing room in terms of their... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Omicron arrives It is too soon to conclude that Omicron will swamp China’s efforts to suppress COVID. But the policy of “dynamic clearing” is facing a severe test. Data due over the coming week will reveal the... 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read