China Economics Weekly What to make of the growth target The GDP growth target for 2023 will be revealed on Sunday at the opening of the National People’s Congress. There is speculation that it could be raised relative to last year but we think that’s... 3rd March 2023 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Case for rate cuts fades as financial stability concerns return Much of the focus in the coming days will be on the senior government appointments that will be confirmed at the National People’s Congress that starts in just over a week, including for the PBOC. We... 24th February 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Sign of a property turnaround are building Data published this week showed that property prices stabilised in January following a record 16-month decline. This adds to growing signs that the housing market is embarking on a cyclical rebound... 17th February 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export downturn, outbound tourism, EV subsidies Early signs are the China’s goods exports will fall further in the next few months. Outbound tourism though is surging with further major relaxations this week of COVID-linked limits on overseas... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal support on its way, IPO reform largely cosmetic Government bond issuance, a timely proxy for the fiscal stance, fell year-on-year last month. But all the signs are that this will be temporary, with borrowing likely to ramp up in the coming months... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Brighter days ahead for the housing market New home sales have almost halved over the past couple of years but a cyclical rebound appears to be kicking off now that government policy has turned more supportive on multiple fronts. 27th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday travel, population decline The number of Chinese travelling across the country to spend next week’s Lunar New Year holiday with their families looks set to almost double from last year. Meanwhile, those staying put in the... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly No wall of money but still plenty of upside for spending Tuesday’s retail sales data are likely to show that spending plunged as COVID crashed through China last month. But December was an age ago. The focus for investors now is on the speed of the recovery... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Already past the worst? New COVID infections across much of China may already be dropping back just as quickly as they surged only a month ago. Shops and streets are getting busier. A full return to normality is probably... 6th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly The most dangerous weeks of the pandemic in China China is entering the most dangerous weeks of the pandemic. The authorities are making almost no efforts now to slow the spread of infections and, with the migration ahead of Lunar New Year getting... 23rd December 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumer demand push revived, COVID debacle, chips The Central Economic Work Conference ended today with a pledge of more support for consumers and property developers. That’s the second major policy document with a focus on consumers this week. Might... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal support, boost for property, vaccination stepping up Next week’s Economic Work Conference will set the tone for policy for the coming year. Early signs are that fiscal support will be expanded while constraints on property developers will be further... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccination targets point to mid-2023 reopening goal The recent easing of virus restrictions in many cities reflects efforts to streamline the zero-COVID policy rather than abandon it in the near-term. By setting concrete targets for elderly vaccination... 2nd December 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Patching up relations with the West, help for developers There has been a palpable easing of strains between China and the West since the cordial meeting last week between Xi and Biden. But the root causes of distrust haven’t changed – if anything, recent... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Preparing for reopening will take time Officials have made clear that they are sticking with the zero-COVID policy for now. There are some signs that they are becoming more serious about removing the main roadblocks to reopening –... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Lighter-touch version of zero-COVID is a gamble The easing of containment measures announced today is aimed at reducing the economic cost of the zero-COVID policy, not moving away from it. But it risks making it harder for local governments to keep... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
