China Economics Weekly What to make of the reopening rumours Rumours about an imminent move away from zero-COVID have lifted Chinese markets this week but there is no concrete evidence yet of a shift. And even if officials are now drawing up an exit strategy... 4th November 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Infrastructure push only a stopgap solution A jump in infrastructure investment can take much of the credit for the better-than-expected Q3 GDP figures. We think fiscal stimulus will result in a further ramp-up in spending next year. But China... 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Kicking away the ladder The Party Congress has slowed the leadership’s response to the semiconductor export controls introduced by the Biden administration two weeks ago. But the Ministry of Industry and Information... 21st October 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly The reshuffle of Xi’s economic team The Party Congress begins on Sunday. There’s little doubt that it will mark the start of a third term in power for Xi Jinping. What’s less clear is whether retirement norms will still apply to other... 14th October 2022 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly UN win highlights China’s “fracturing” vulnerabilities China had a diplomatic win at the UN this week, but its success also shines a light on its vulnerabilities as the global economy fractures into US and China-centred blocs. China has more supporters in... 7th October 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Mortgage rate easing, ominous signs for exporters Officials are giving banks more room to lower mortgage rates by relaxing regulatory controls. We doubt this will be sufficient to put a floor under home sales. But alongside efforts to prop up the... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Developers finish more homes, renminbi unanchored In trying to anchor the renminbi to the dollar, the PBOC has now put itself at risk of repeating the mistakes that led to a messy sell-off in 2015. Meanwhile, there are early signs that efforts to... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Weak RMB inhibits easing, consumption takes a hit The PBOC has been trying to offer support to the economy this week without lowering its policy rates, but a desire to stabilise the exchange rate constrains what it can do. That’s a problem for the... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Party Congress puts a chill on the rest of the year Early indicators suggest that China’s economy was even weaker in August than it was in July, when the rebound from the Shanghai lockdown prematurely fizzled out. And constraints faced by policymakers... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly COVID threat, marriage slump The number of Chinese cities tackling virus outbreaks is now almost as high as it was at the peak of the Omicron wave. The hit to activity remains smaller. But with Chengdu entering lockdown and other... 2nd September 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus continues to underwhelm The recent flurry of policy announcements amounts to less than meets the eye. The rate cuts are too small to revive loan demand and the new commitments for direct credit support total just 0.8% of GDP... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Energy crunch threatens to spread nationally Southwest China is currently experiencing power shortages due to a severe drought and heatwave. Officials in Sichuan province and Chongqing municipality have responded by ordering week-long halts to... 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC turns less dovish on inflation The PBOC’s latest monetary policy report struck a less dovish tone, warning that inflationary pressure may increase in the near-term. We think these concerns are overdone and that inflation is more... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Taiwan tensions add impetus to decoupling If China’s military drills off the coast of Taiwan end, as scheduled, on Sunday and there is no further retaliation, this week’s flare-up in tension won’t have a direct economic impact. But it will... 5th August 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly GDP target dropped, property rescue plans The Politburo this week quietly abandoned the GDP growth target while promising to support the property sector and ensure that stalled projects are completed. The immediate goal is to boost confidence... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property financing strains, migrant job losses Regulators have called on banks to step up lending to developers. But with banks becoming more cautious about issuing mortgages in the face of mortgage boycotts and local governments tightening... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
