Households’ balance sheets are still in good shape, with debt burdens stabilising well below their pre-crisis levels and delinquencies low. However, the further rise in newly delinquent credit card...

Higher market interest rates will undoubtedly act as a drag on household spending and business investment, offsetting some of the temporary boost from fiscal stimulus. We expect that will eventually...

The job opening and labour turnover report and NFIB survey released this week suggest that labour market conditions continue to tighten and point to wage pressures rising further this year. We still...

We learned this week that core PCE inflation reached 1.9% in March, within a whisker of the Fed’s 2% target, and we think it has further to rise over the rest of this year. We expect a gradual pick-up...