We expect rising interest rates to cause economic growth to slow sharply next year, especially as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Our best judgement is that there’s a 30% chance of a mild...

Growth in the narrow monetary aggregates slowed further in April, but there is still little to suggest that this is having much of an impact on the wider economy. Our measure of M3 growth has held up...

America’s isolation on trade policy, which will be on full show at this weekend’s G7 summit in Canada, raises the (admittedly still small) risks of a worst-case scenario in which the US tears up NAFTA...

Despite the sharp rebound in core inflation this year, there seems to be a growing belief in the markets that the Fed is now prepared to allow inflation to rise above the 2% target without stepping up...