Trade tensions have escalated faster and further than we had originally anticipated, capped this week by President Trump’s threat to apply a 10% tariff to $200bn of imports from China. We still think...

The recent drop in airfare inflation has been a small drag on core inflation and, unlike last year’s fall in wireless telephone service prices, appears to be a genuine measurement problem. Underlying...

After the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by another 25bp, Fed Chair Jerome Powell claimed in the post-meeting press conference that “the economy is doing very well” – we couldn’t agree more...

The Fed delivered another 25bp hike in its fed funds target range to between 1.75% and 2.00% today and the updated interest rate projections show that officials now anticipate an additional two 25bp...