Although the annual core PCE inflation rate only edged higher to 1.6% in February there is now a good chance that base effects will push it up to 2.0% in March, leaving it in line with the Fed’s...

The incoming activity data suggest that GDP growth slowed from an upwardly-revised 2.9% annualised in the fourth quarter to 2.0% or so in the first quarter. That would still be slightly above the...

The gradual contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet is now starting to weigh on the monetary aggregates. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to expect bank lending growth to rebound soon.

During his first post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell managed to signal faster rate hikes over the coming years while simultaneously calming the bond market by playing down the risks...