Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia GDP (Q4 2025)

Although the underlying details were a mixed bag, we suspect the RBA will still be concerned that growth is running above potential in Australia.

4th March 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (January 2026)

Trimmed mean inflation climbed to a fresh high in January, consistent with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep tightening monetary policy.

25th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Jan. 26)

With the January labour force survey confirming that the labour market is tightening rather than loosening as the RBA had anticipated, the Bank has more work to do.

19th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBNZ Meeting (Feb. 2026)

Although the RBNZ remains cautious about the near-term outlook, it seems open to normalising policy settings before long.

18th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 2025)

Although the pickup in wage growth last quarter was driven in part by one-off factors, a look under the hood suggests that wage pressures will be slow to recede over the year ahead. Insofar as that...

18th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Dec. 25)

Although Australian households pared back spending at the end of last year, that doesn't take away from the bigger picture that the economy is running too hot for the RBA's liking. Accordingly, we...

9th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Labour Market (Q4 2025)

The modest rise in New Zealand’s jobless rate in Q4 masks the fact that underlying labour market conditions have started to improve. That said, we still think policy tightening won’t be on the Bank’s...

3rd February 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Feb. 2026)

The RBA continued to sound concerned about rising capacity pressures when it lifted its cash rate by 25bp today. There is a growing risk that rates will need to be taken above the 4.10% peak we have...

3rd February 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2025)

The sharper-than-expected rise in underlying inflation makes it all but certain that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates at its meeting next week.

28th January 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4)

Although headline inflation picked up further in Q4, underlying inflation remains well behaved. That being the case, we still think the RBNZ will keep rates on hold for a prolonged period, whereas...

22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2025)

Given the renewed tightening in the labour market in December, the Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to pull the trigger on a rate hike at its meeting next month.

22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Nov. 25)

With Australian households continuing to loosen their purse strings, the case for the RBA to tighten policy is growing increasingly compelling.

12th January 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Nov. 25)

While trimmed mean inflation slowed in February, it’s probably still too strong for the RBA’s liking and we’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank will tighten policy as soon as next month.

7th January 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand GDP (Q3 2025)

Although the New Zealand economy bounced back strongly in Q3, the recovery is likely to be somewhat choppy going forward. Accordingly, we believe the RBNZ will remain in wait and watch mode for a...

17th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Nov. 2025)

Although the weak November jobs report muddies the waters for the RBA, there are few indications that the labour market is falling off a cliff. Given its concerns about inflation persistence, we still...

11th December 2025 · 2 mins read