Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Minimum Wage Decision 2026/27

The strong increase in the minimum wage this year makes it more likely that wage growth will overshoot the RBA’s expectations, bolstering the case for additional policy tightening.

2nd June 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Household Spending (April 2026)

The fall in household spending in April will give the RBA pause for thought, raising risks to our view that it will deliver one final 25bp hike in Q3.

28th May 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBNZ Meeting (May 2026)

The RBNZ narrowly voted to leave rates on hold today and it seems like a hike could come sooner than our current forecast of Q4. That said, with the output gap still deeply negative, the Bank doesn’t...

27th May 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (April 2026)

With price pressures somewhat contained for now, the RBA is all but certain to pause its tightening cycle in June. However, if we’re right that the rise in underlying inflation has further to run, the...

27th May 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (April 2026)

The strong pickup in Australia’s jobless rate in April makes it all but certain that the Bank will leave rates on hold at 4.35% at its June meeting. However, with underlying inflation set to...

21st May 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBA Minutes (May 2026)

Given the RBA’s ongoing concerns about inflation expectations becoming unanchored, we think it will tighten policy a bit further still.

19th May 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q1 2025)

Although wage growth eased a touch in Q1, a look under the hood suggests that wage pressures could soon bubble up again. As a result, we still think the RBA has more work to do.

13th May 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2026)

The slight fall in the jobless rate in Q1 won’t change the RBNZ’s assessment that labour market is operating with substantial excess capacity. Accordingly, we continue to believe that the Bank won’t...

6th May 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (May 2026)

Given the potential for incoming inflation data to surprise to the upside of the RBA’s expectations, we think further policy tightening remains likely.

5th May 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Household Spending (Mar./Q1 2026)

With household spending holding up well in the face of the oil price shock, the RBA is unlikely to have major qualms about tightening policy further.

5th May 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q1/Mar. 26)

Inflation didn’t rise as much last quarter as most had anticipated but the full impact of the energy cost shock has yet to be felt.

29th April 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2026)

While headline inflation remains well above the midpoint of the RBNZ’s target, the continued softening of underlying inflation means that the Bank won’t be in a rush to tighten policy.

21st April 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (March 2026)

The latest data will reinforce the RBA’s assessment that upside risks to inflation are greater than downside risks to the labour market.

16th April 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting (April 26)

8th April 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Household Spending (Feb. 26)

The recent weakness in household spending won’t stop the RBA from hiking interest rates at its upcoming meeting next month given concerns about an unanchoring of inflation expectations.

7th April 2026 · 2 mins read