Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 2025) Although the weak November jobs report muddies the waters for the RBA, there are few indications that the labour market is falling off a cliff. Given its concerns about inflation persistence, we still... 11th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 2025) The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be rate hike. 9th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Oct. 25) The surge in household spending in October confirms our view that the RBA won’t cut rates any further. If anything, the risk is that the Bank will feel compelled to tighten policy before long. 4th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q3 2025) Although activity lost a bit of momentum last quarter, we suspect growth will hover at around its trend rate in the year ahead. The upshot is that, although the RBA won’t cut rates any further, we... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) With inflationary pressures continuing to strengthen at the start of the quarter, there is little chance that rate cuts will be on the RBA’s agenda anytime soon. 26th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3 2025) Although wage growth in Australia held steady last quarter, underlying momentum appears to have softened a touch. At the margin, that supports our view that the RBA will resume its easing cycle in H2... 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (Nov. 2025) The minutes of the RBA’s November meeting reinforce the notion that the Bank will remain in wait and watch mode in the near term. While we still expect it to cut rates by another 50bp late next year... 18th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Oct. 2025) The renewed tightening of the labour market last month will feed the Bank’s concerns about elevated capacity pressures and keep rate cuts off the agenda in the near-term. 13th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2025) The tepid Q3 jobs report should ensure that the RBNZ cuts rates by another 25bp at its meeting on 26 th November. However, given signs that the labour market is bottoming out, we suspect that this cut... 4th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 2025) When the Reserve Bank of Australia left policy settings unchanged at its meeting today, it remained even-handed about the risks to its outlook. Although an extended pause appears likely, we still... 4th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Sep. 25) Notwithstanding the slowdown in household spending last quarter, the RBA will almost certainly leave rates on hold at its meeting tomorrow. We don't expect rate cuts to be on the agenda before the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2025) With inflation vastly overshooting the RBA’s forecasts, the Bank won’t cut interest rates at its November meeting and the chances that it won’t loosen policy any further are rising. 29th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3 2025) Although headline inflation rose to the top of the RBNZ's 1-3% target band last quarter, the Bank will put more emphasis on the fact that core inflation remained well-behaved. Accordingly, we still... 19th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2025) The marked loosening of the labour market last month bolsters the case for the RBA to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting in November. Even so, the decision will probably come down to the wire, given the... 16th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (Sep. 2025) Although the RBA sounded less confident about the policy space it has to lower rates, we still expect it to deliver two more 25bp cuts in the months ahead. 14th October 2025 · 2 mins read
