Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hawkish RBA will continue to tighten well into 2023 The RBA didn’t respond to the upside surprise in Q3 inflation with a renewed 50bp hike this week as some had anticipated. But by revising up its inflation forecasts and sounding increasingly concerned... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will stick to 25bp hike One reason why investors were caught off guard by the further acceleration in trimmed mean CPI last quarter was that the ABS' Monthly CPI Indicator hasn't been as reliable as we'd like it to be. That... 28th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA prepares investors for a lengthy tightening cycle The Reserve Bank of Australia signaled this week that its decision to slow the pace of tightening at its latest meeting doesn't mean that the tightening cycle will be over soon. Meanwhile, Treasurer... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA still likely to lift rates to 3.6% by mid-2023 The RBA downplayed the importance of its revised estimate of the neutral interest rate published this week. For what it’s worth though, the Bank’s analysis implies that the cash rate remains below... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA still likely to lift rates to 3.6% by mid-2023 The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates by less than most had anticipated this week, but with the economy still running red hot, we doubt that it will take its foot of the brake altogether before... 7th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Early signs that households are coming under pressure With commodity prices surging in the wake of the Ukraine war, the final budget outcome for 2021/22 improved the most relative to the Budget forecast in history. And with coal prices still sky high... 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Turning point for inflation has been reached While the exchange rate has only played a minor role in the surge in “core” goods inflation to a record-high, the further depreciation of the Australian dollar over the past month will tilt the... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will deliver another 50bp rate hike RBA Governor Lowe reiterated today that the Bank will slow the pace of tightening at some point. But his hawkish comments on the health of consumer spending and the labour market suggest that this... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will slow pace of tightening to 25bp next month Consumption has recovered faster than we had expected. However, income growth has disappointed and the savings rate is falling more sharply than we had thought. That leaves less scope for households... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn starting to weigh on activity While the plunge in homebuilding last quarter reflected supply shortages more than weak demand, slumping home sales and house prices suggest that the downturn in dwellings investment has much further... 2nd September 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Resilient activity points to aggressive RBA tightening While business surveys in other advanced economies point to shrinking activity, the are holding up much better in Australia. The resilience of Australia's consumer reflects the strongest rise in... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth will surpass 3% next quarter While there are some early signs that the recovery in employment is sputtering, we aren't convinced that the labour market has turned for the worse just yet. With labour shortages still severe and the... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to slow pace of tightening from October The latest survey data suggest that inflation will continue to accelerate over coming months and we expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver another 50bp rate hike next month. But with food... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will press on with another 50bp hike next month The Reserve Bank of Australia has indicated that it will slow the pace of tightening over coming months as tighter policy is starting to weigh on activity. With growth softening rather than collapsing... 5th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy to slow more sharply than Treasurer expects While we expect the economy hold up a bit better than the Treasurer in the near-term, aggressive policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia will exacerbate the ongoing housing downturn... 29th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation to surge despite falling commodity prices The recent fall in global food and crude oil prices means that the inflation outlook has become more nuanced. But with coal and wholesale gas prices at record highs, Australians will soon witness the... 22nd July 2022 · 5 mins read
