US Economics Update Labour shortages easing in worst hit sectors While the headline job openings and quits rates remain close to record levels, below the surface there are clear signs that labour shortages are easing in the hardest-hit sectors. That provides some... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Fed Won’t Flinch as Labor Market Starts Tailing Off “The tentative signs that payroll growth is slowing and wage growth is falling are not going to be enough to convince the Fed to back away from their planned series of 50bp rate hikes at the next... 28th May 2022 · Bloomberg
US Economics Weekly Strong consumer; “greedflation” not a thing The 0.7% jump in real consumption in April, together with the upward revision to March’s gain leaves consumption on track for a 5% annualised gain in the second quarter. Thanks to a rapid rebound in... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth slowing We expect that non-farm payroll growth slowed in May, albeit to a still strong 300,000 . 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Inventory rebound shows shortages easing fitfully The rapid rebuilding of inventories over the past few quarters has left it close to normal levels in some sectors. But the bigger picture is that economy-wide inventories are still exceptionally lean... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (May) For all the fears that the tightening of financial conditions over the past few months will push the economy into recession, our composite model still puts the risks over the next 12 months at close... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The modest 0.4% m/m rise in durable goods orders in April suggests that rate-sensitive business equipment investment growth is beginning to slow, with underlying capital goods shipments consistent... 25th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy powering ahead The strength of the hard activity data for April refutes the recent message from financial markets that the economy is at risk of imminent recession. The solid gain in control group retail sales... 18th May 2022 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.8% rise in manufacturing output last month underlines that it is not just consumer spending powering the economy forward. While the survey evidence suggests global manufacturing demand is... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions remain tight While the job openings and quits rates both edged up again in March, the bigger picture remains that labour market conditions have been stable over the past nine months or so, with few signs that... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 20-month low of 55.4 in April, from 57.1, is mostly due to weakening demand amid a broader slowdown in global manufacturing, rather than a renewed... 2nd May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The solid increase in durable goods orders in March reflects both easing supply shortages as well as strong underlying investment demand. Business equipment investment is usually one of the more rate... 26th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation won’t stop the Fed While we are confident that inflation will fall back sharply in the second half of this year, that will not stop the Fed delivering a series of 50bp rate hikes at its upcoming meetings. Although... 20th April 2022 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The strong 0.9% rise in industrial production in March reflected a sharp rebound in autos production as well as another big increase in mining output. The US will not be immune to the global slowdown... 15th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Peak inflation won’t stop the Fed hiking aggressively The news that core prices rose by a more modest 0.3% in March, even as higher energy prices drove headline inflation to a 40-year high of 8.5%, explains why investors pared bets this week on how far... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy will bend not break under higher rates We expect the economy to bend rather than break under the pressure of a rapid monetary tightening by the Fed. We anticipate that real economic growth will remain consistently below its 2% potential... 12th April 2022 · 22 mins read
