US Economics Update Fed delivers a hawkish 75bp hike The Fed stuck to the script in delivering a 75bp rate hike at its September meeting, but in our view still managed to deliver a hawkish message with the accompanying projections, which imply an... 21st September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The slower pace of payroll gains in August, together with the big rebound in the labour force, and the more modest increase in wages, would seem to favour a smaller 50bp rate hike from the Fed next... 2nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update New ADP surveys may be more useful in time The new ADP surveys of employment and wages, unveiled today, have the potential to be a useful independent source of labour market data, but for now their value is hampered by their short history. 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update How will the midterms affect the economic outlook? The Republican party is on track to regain control of at least the House in the upcoming midterms, though the recent narrowing in the polls means that is no longer the slam dunk it once appeared... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market still hot We forecast a smaller, but still rapid, 350,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.5%. We’ll be discussing the US August employment report in an online Drop... 25th August 2022 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Rebounding real incomes to support consumption After a year-long contraction in real disposable incomes, the sharp declines in energy prices over recent weeks are finally providing some relief. Alongside continued strong employment growth, we... 22nd August 2022 · 10 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) While overall retail sales were unchanged in July, the details were far more encouraging, with a price-related fall in gasoline sales freeing up households to increase spending on other goods. With... 17th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Rise in delinquencies not a major threat The rise in new delinquencies on consumer loans over the first half of the year mostly reflects rising interest costs. With debt levels low, real incomes on track to begin rising again amid a drop... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of the fall in participation With most workers who left during the pandemic mostly returned to the labour force by early 2022, it is little surprise that growth of the labour force has slowed. But the decline in the participation... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Drop in productivity most likely a statistical mirage The 2.5% slump in productivity over the past year – the worst since records began in 1948 – is another illustration of the chasm that has opened up between the GDP and employment figures. The only... 9th August 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The unexpected acceleration in non-farm payroll growth in July, together with the further decline in the unemployment rate and the renewed pick-up in wage pressures, suggests the economy is still a... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
