US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 431,000 rise in non-farm payrolls is another sign that the real economy has plenty of momentum, though with those gains now being helped by a stronger rebound in the labour force, there are signs... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Inflation to fall sharply in H2 While the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil mean energy prices will remain elevated and push headline inflation above 8% in March, it will still fall sharply later this year. Energy... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed will deliver a further 150bp of rate hikes this year The Fed delivered on expectations of a 25bp rate hike this week but went further than we anticipated in pencilling in a further six 25bp hikes this year and four next. With their forecasts for core... 18th March 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The jump in manufacturing output last month in part reflects the easing of widespread absenteeism as covid cases fell back sharply. 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Tentative easing in labour shortages Both job openings and quits have fallen back slightly over the past several months, which suggests that wage growth and underlying inflationary pressures should soon stabilise. 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Higher oil prices not a huge risk to consumers The surge in gasoline prices in recent days will only add to the drag on households purchasing power from fading stimulus and higher inflation over recent months. But with consumers able to cushion... 8th March 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The increase in the trade deficit to a record $89.7bn in January, from $82.0bn, means that net trade is on track to subtract close to 2%-pts from annualised first-quarter GDP growth, which we expect... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The stronger than expected 678,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February and upward revisions to previous months gains is another sign that the real economy has considerable momentum, with the Omicron... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 58.6 in February, from 57.6, is another sign that demand remains strong, with the small rise in supplier delivery times and modest decline in the prices paid... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Waller ramps up the hawkishness In his speech late last night, Christopher Waller became the first Fed Governor to throw his weight behind St Louis Fed President James Bullard’s call for 100bp of rate hikes by the middle of the year... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview A strong month for payrolls as Omicron fades Reflecting the stronger trend in employment growth apparent in the revised payroll data and the collapse in Omicron cases in February, we expect non-farm payrolls to rise by 600,000 this month. 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation is coming The further rise in CPI inflation to 7.5% in January and hawkish comments from Fed officials have seen markets rush to price in a series of aggressive interest rate hikes this year. But recent weeks... 17th February 2022 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The strong 3.8% rebound in retail sales in January is not quite as good as it looks, since it is mainly a recovery from the revised 2.5% drop in December. But with the modest decline in food and drink... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update What explains the ongoing weakness of labour supply? Retirements still explain around half of the shortfall in labour force participation since the pandemic. While the rest of the decline reflects a broad mix of factors, the longer those workers remain... 2nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed lines up March rate hike The Fed’s announcement that it will “soon be appropriate” to raise interest rates and the numerous hints dropped by Chair Jerome Powell in the post-meeting press conference all but guarantee that a... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Omicron impact short-lived The surge in Omicron infections means more people were self-isolating in early-January than at any time since the beginning of the pandemic, although the impact that will have on employment and output... 24th January 2022 · 9 mins read
