India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Mar.) Growth in India’s core infrastructure industries slowed in March as production of some energy commodities fell. However, there are tentative signs that the rise in commodity prices caused by the war... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Consensus may still be playing catch up Comments this week from MPC members strengthen our view that the repo rate will be hiked by 25bp (to 4.25%) in the next policy meeting in June. That view is now also shared by the consensus, which has... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Monetary conditions tighten The key policy development this month was the introduction of a new Standing Deposit Facility, through which the RBI will drain excess banking sector liquidity. The SDF now provides the floor for the... 28th April 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly PM Johnson trip, NBFC clean up, WPI surges Underpinning UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s visit to India are talks toward a free-trade agreement, which both countries are aiming to have in place before the end of the year. But the early... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation surge sets stage for June rate hike We’ve been arguing for several months that both the consensus and the RBI have been underestimating the upside threats to inflation. Consumer price data for March released this week have reinforced... 14th April 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to resume widening before long The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in March was due in large part to a sharp drop in gold imports. Even if gold imports remain low, we still expect the trade and current account deficits to... 13th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Inflation will force the RBI’s hand The surge in global commodity prices will take a little gloss off India’s economic recovery this year but we still expect stronger GDP growth than the consensus. Higher commodity prices will also keep... 13th April 2022 · 19 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) Headline consumer price inflation soared beyond even our above-consensus forecast in March and, given that it is likely to rise further over the coming months, we think the RBI will start hiking the... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russia relations, LIC IPO, RBI policy stance Relations between India and Russia came under fresh scrutiny this week. But tentative signs that India is beginning to tread more carefully suggest that discounted Russian commodities are now even... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Mar.) India’s March PMIs show services as the bright spot last month as looser virus restrictions allowed activity to rebound. Unless COVID-19 cases pick up again, the outlook for the services sector... 6th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped back in March as high commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine began to take a toll on the sector. Given that fuel and gas prices have only climbed higher since... 4th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Price pressures are building The main focus next week will be the RBI’s policy announcement on Friday. We think the MPC will leave its policy settings unchanged, but we still expect the committee to ditch its dovish tone later... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Wheat exports, inflation jump, loan moratorium expiry India's wheat exports have soared recently and stand to benefit further from the shock to global supply caused by the war in Ukraine. But the consequences for India's external position will be small... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Ukraine war heightens inflation and external risks The surge in commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine will have several repercussions for India’s economy. As a major net commodity importer, its terms of trade will deteriorate and we think... 17th March 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities at multi-year highs The surge in commodity prices brought about by the war in Ukraine will lead to a deterioration in India’s external position, with the current account deficit widening to almost 4% of GDP this year... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) Indian industrial production held steady in m/m terms in January, supporting our view that the Omicron hit to the economy was small. But looking ahead, the surge in commodity prices as a result of the... 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
