India Economics Weekly Exports coming off the boil, RBI continues frontloading Data released this week show that Indian exporters are not immune from the broad weakening in demand as the global growth outlooks deteriorates. Meanwhile, the RBI continued frontloading policy... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Jul.) India’s July PMIs show a reversal of the recent outperformance of services. That said, both the services and composite PMIs remain high by pre-pandemic standards, pointing to growth continuing to hold... 3rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI was remarkably strong in July, with domestic demand supporting activity despite a negative global backdrop. The rebound will give the RBI more confidence to hike by 50bps... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) Favourable base effects kept y/y growth in India’s core infrastructure industries elevated in June. But once those base effects are removed, it’s clear that the industrial sector is entering a weaker... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Frontloaded tightening to continue We expect the MPC to continue frontloading policy tightening with another 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.40%) at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on 5 th August. Beyond next week, we think the... 28th July 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Remittances to take edge off current account concerns Data released this week showed that remittances flows into India dwarfed those to elsewhere in the world last year, helping India to maintain a small current account deficit and supporting the... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Demographics to remain an important growth driver The latest population projections released by the UN this month show that India will overtake China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023 (see Chart 1), a touch earlier than previously expected... 21st July 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update Five questions and answers on the near-term outlook We’ve recently received several questions from clients on how the near-term outlook for India is shaping up. This Update summarises our big picture views for the next six months or so by providing... 20th July 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Birth of the international rupee? We doubt the RBI’s new mechanism to allow international trade to be settled in rupees will see widespread use. One area where it may see some use is in trade with Russia - a rupee settlement mechanism... 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation in India dropped back in June from its record high, and now appears to have passed its peak. CPI inflation will also peak in the next few months, but in the near term it’s... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Headline consumer price inflation held steady in June, but the core rate rose further. We expect inflation to climb higher above the RBI’s target in July and August, which should be enough for the MPC... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policy tweaks should provide some relief to rupee New measures to reduce gold imports are unlikely to lead to a substantially narrower current account deficit and support the rupee, not least because the decision to discourage fuel exports will have... 8th July 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economic Outlook More frontloading to come Strong economic growth and surging inflation have prompted the RBI to kick-start its hiking cycle and we think the central bank will continue to frontload policy tightening. In all, we think the repo... 7th July 2022 · 19 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Jun.) India’s June PMIs show exceptionally strong activity in the services sector is offsetting slower growth in manufacturing. That may give the RBI some added confidence to continue frontloading policy... 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly GST hikes add to inflation concerns The Finance Ministry’s announcement this week of hikes to GST rates doesn’t signify a tighter fiscal stance, but it does add to the upside risks to inflation. This reinforces our belief that the RBI... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped back in June, adding to the evidence of a slowdown in the broader industrial sector. Meanwhile although there are tentative signs of price pressures in the sector... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
