India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (May) Base effects boosted y/y growth in India’s core infrastructure industries to a 13-month high in May. But stripping out base effects reveals that industry might be entering a softer patch after a... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes suggest more frontloading is in store The minutes of the MPC’s June meeting – in which the repo rate was hiked by 50bps to 4.90% – show that combatting inflation remains the priority and suggest that tightening will continue to be... 22nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack FX intervention from a position of strength The rupee has held up better than most EM currencies this month and the recent drop in FX reserves strongly indicates that this is in part because the RBI has once again ramped up its FX interventions... 22nd June 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Market turmoil tests RBI’s appetite for FX intervention Although the rupee fell to a record low against the US dollar this week amid a broad-based sell-off in global financial markets, it held up better than most other EM currencies. That’s probably down... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit to persist India’s goods trade deficit didn’t widen in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – rather counter-intuitively for a major commodity importer. But that has now started to happen, and... 16th June 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Indian wholesale price inflation climbed to another historic high in May. The rise in food prices in particular suggests that some of the upside risks to the inflation picture we have been flagging... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) India’s consumer price inflation dropped back in May, but much of that was due to base effects. We expect inflation to resume rising from June, prompting the RBI to continue frontloading policy... 13th June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food inflation, new MSPs, RBI policy The Reserve Bank stepped up the pace of tightening by hiking the repo rate by 50bps to 4.90% this week. It also upped its inflation forecasts substantially, primarily due to food inflation. We agree... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Drop in inflation in May will prove fleeting Headline CPI inflation in India is likely to have dropped in May, primarily due to base effects. But beyond May, we expect inflation to resume rising, reaching over 8% by August. The RBI is likely to... 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Resilient economy reinforces case for frontloading GDP data for Q1 released this week showed that the economy weathered the Omicron wave pretty well, and the timelier data suggest a solid performance so far in Q2. That said, there were also further... 3rd June 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) India’s manufacturing PMI held steady in May, but there are further signs of price pressures becoming more intense last month. That supports our view that the RBI will frontload its policy tightening. 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) Indian GDP data for Q1 (Q4 of FY21/22) show that activity held up much better during the Omicron outbreak than during previous virus waves. The economy is well-placed for strong growth over 2022 as a... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Shifting policy mix The RBI kicked off its tightening cycle this month with a 40bp hike to the repo rate (to 4.40%) in an unscheduled policy announcement. The minutes to that meeting show that several MPC members are... 27th May 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update RBI intervention will support the rupee The Indian rupee hit a record low against the US dollar today, but the big picture is that RBI intervention has helped it hold up better than most EM currencies recently. Given that the RBI has ample... 9th May 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Power shortages, new repo rate forecasts The ongoing heatwave and related power shortages in India pose a downside risk to growth, but we think the biggest risk is the upside one to inflation. Indeed, rising price pressures prompted the RBI... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Apr.) India’s April PMIs show activity picking up, but power shortages may weigh on output soon. The surveys also provide more evidence of price pressures growing. That suggests the RBI will follow up... 5th May 2022 · 2 mins read
