The latest edition of this quarterly report captures the US economy at a key moment in its economic and policy cycle, providing analysis for 2024 and beyond that assesses the key issues shaping macro and market outcomes, including:
- What the outcome of this November's election could mean for economic growth and for policy;
- Why we think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year by more than markets and the Fed currently anticipate;
- Why a near-term recession can't be entirely ruled out, but also how the productivity improvements from AI will soon show.
Download a complimentary copy of this report now to understand what recession and a changing inflation picture will mean for Fed policy.
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Although we expect GDP growth to slow to a below-potential pace over the next few quarters, we then anticipate a pick-up late this year, as monetary policy flips from a headwind to a tailwind.
Report authors
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Paul Ashworth
Chief North America Economist
Paul Ashworth is our Chief North America Economist, with overall responsibility for our coverage of the US and Canada.
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Olivia Cross
North America Economist
Olivia Cross is a North America Economist who joined the Capital Economics graduate training scheme in September 2021. She previously spent a year on placement at the company as part of her undergraduate degree. Olivia holds a degree in Economics with Politics from Loughborough University.
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US economics coverage
Our US Economics coverage provides detailed analysis and independent forecasts for the US economy and financial markets, offering both rapid responses to new data and developments, and more in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future developments.