US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Growth stronger than reported but weaker than believed The outsized surge in imports last quarter makes the negative Q1 GDP reading an inordinately poor reflection of the economy's strength. However, stripping out an artificially large jump in IT... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Reality bites for Trump on tariffs and the Fed The negative reaction in financial markets undoubtedly played a key role in making President Trump reconsider his eye-wateringly high tariffs on China and his ill-advised plans to fire Fed Chair... 25th April 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The American consumer rises again The positive retail sales data for March released this week means we now believe that real consumption grew by 1.0% annualised in the first quarter, pushing our Q1 GDP forecast back into positive... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump folds first hand, doubles down on second As we suggested in our Update from last weekend, it was only a matter of time before the increasingly adverse market reaction forced President Donald Trump to reconsider his plan to levy prohibitive... 11th April 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Republicans need to get with the recycling program President Donald Trump’s big “Liberation Day” announcement went down badly in the markets, as fears mounted that the bigger-than-expected reciprocal tariffs would trigger a recession. The surge in... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump shifts tariffs up a gear The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on most motor vehicle and some parts imports is an upside risk to our inflation forecasts. There have been some hints from the administration that the levies... 28th March 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fed operating in the dark The Fed is struggling to provide forward guidance without clear policy direction from the new administration. Even though rate-setters expect core PCE inflation to end the year at close to 3%, the... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The tariffs will continue until sentiment improves Comments from President Donald Trump and his cabinet members in the past week suggest that neither an economic downturn nor a severe stock market decline will deter the administration from pursuing... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump tariff push descends into farce Markets reacted badly this week when President Donald Trump once again flip-flopped on imposing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. That's two U-turns in a month. It remains to be seen whether... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trumpcession? Following the 0.5% m/m slump in real consumption in January and the massive 10% m/m surge in real goods imports, we now expect first-quarter GDP to contract by 1.0% annualised. Assuming that surge in... 28th February 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump turns the screw on tariffs One month after returning to the White House, President Donald Trump continues to issue new tariff threats, this week taking aim at imports of motor vehicles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. His... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England March meetings 1742482800 Our senior economists hosted a wrap-up of the latest policy decisions from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England, to answer questions from the audience about how the strate
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: US reciprocal tariffs will be a big deal After a hot CPI report this week and a not-so-hot PPI report (at least not in the components that count) we estimate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE price measure increased by 0.28% m/m in January... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The art of the deal While President Donald Trump’s U-turn on 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico serves as a good reminder that he is always open to cutting a deal, be careful writing tariffs off altogether. China came... 7th February 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed in no hurry with tariffs coming Our expectation is still that, in net terms, the policy mix the Trump administration is adopting will have a mildly stagflationary impact. That is why we expect GDP growth to slow below 2% from the... 31st January 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: What have we learned from Trump’s first week? President Donald Trump’s first week back in office kicked off with a bang. He signed around 100 executive orders and strongly signalled that there were more policy changes to come. The week’s... 24th January 2025 · 7 mins read
