US Economics Weekly Little consumption upside from home refinancing uptick The extent to which the recent drop in mortgage rates and flurry of home refinancing can boost consumption is limited, as most homeowners still hold pandemic-era sub-4% loans. While there is some... 10th October 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown puts emphasis on alternative data The ongoing government shutdown is delaying release of official data for September and disrupting collection for October, leaving us to take steer on the economy from alternative measures for the time... 3rd October 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Funding stalemate on Capitol Hill The clock is ticking for Congress to extend the Federal government’s spending authority, which will expire when the next fiscal year begins at 12:01am on October 1st (next Wednesday), triggering a... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed returns to Greenspan's risk management doctrine For long-time Fed watchers, Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference this week was a return to the glory days of Alan Greenspan during the 1990s and 2000s, when “the Maestro” first adopted a risk... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed has the green light to cut The August CPI was the last hurdle to the Fed lowering interest rates next week, and without any marked pickup in inflation, a cut looks certain. Despite calls from Trump loyalists for a 50bp move, we... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly The judiciary strikes back The conventional wisdom is that President Trump has pushed well beyond the established bounds on executive power in his second term. In a number of areas, including tariffs, deportations, the use of... 5th September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump cooking up a storm at the Fed This week the CBO published updated projections showing that tariffs are now expected to raise $3.3 trillion over the next ten years, which would almost exactly offset the impact of the budget... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Labour demand could be even weaker In the wake of the disappointing July payrolls release, which revealed an unexpected near-stagnation in employment over the summer, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his Jackson Hole speech that... 22nd August 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fed inching closer to rate cuts Ahead of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, which kicks off late next week, markets are still wholly convinced that the Fed will cut rates by 25bp at the upcoming FOMC meeting in September and... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Exports resilient despite trade war The trade deficit narrowed to $60.2bn in June, from $71.5bn. This was the smallest deficit in almost two years, with a normalisation in pharmaceutical goods imports causing total imports to decline by... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Payrolls move the narrative back in the doves’ favour The downside surprise to payrolls in July and significant downward revisions to May and June have left markets convinced that the Fed will cut in September, which is looking more likely but isn’t a... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: New trade deals shed light on final tariff landscape With the EU reportedly close to striking a trade deal similar to the one officials agreed with Japan this week, the final tariff landscape is becoming clearer. Both appear to have settled on a 15%... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Too early to celebrate limited tariff impacts The June data released this week showed that, while tariff effects are crystallising in particular industries, broader impacts have so far been avoided. But with pre-tariff inventory stockpiles... 18th July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump shifts focus back to trade and tariffs President Donald Trump has turned his attention back to trade policy in recent days, threatening to resurrect higher reciprocal tariffs on many countries in another few weeks. He has also indicated... 11th July 2025 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Reconciliation bill inches away from finish line Although the cost of the final reconciliation bill looks set to be much larger than the House originally planned, it will not result in any meaningful stimulus for the economy. President Trump will... 3rd July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump fast-tracks search for Powell successor Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a careful balance in his semi-annual testimony to Congress this week, offering no signal that a July cut is likely, while keeping the door open to reductions later in... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
