Canada Economics Update Trump ups the ante with import ban on Canada President Trump’s import ban covers only 0.25% of Canada’s exports to the US and will have little effect on either economy. Nonetheless, Trump’s willingness to impose an import ban is further evidence... 9th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s tolerance for above-target inflation close to the limit While the Fed’s inflation misses over the past two years are primarily due to unanticipated shocks, the FOMC has arguably also become more accepting of above-target inflation as it seeks to balance... 3rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Venezuela oil deal? If the US gains access to greater reserves of heavy-sour crude from Venezuela, it could reduce the US’s reliance on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico. However, any deal would need to involve... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recent rise in yields won’t sap the economy’s momentum The recent sell-off in long-end Treasuries does not amount to a tightening in financial conditions that will slow the economy. Accordingly, we still expect the Fed to raise interest rates by year-end. 25th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Little chance of a big rebound in labour force participation It is likely that the participation rate will rebound slightly in the next few months, but the big picture is that population ageing and the crackdown on immigration will continue to hold back labour... 19th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Deciphering central banks’ muddled messages We recently hosted an online Drop-In to review the latest Fed, Bank of England and ECB decisions and what their communications imply. (Recording here.) This Update provides answers to the questions... 31st July 2026 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Fed holds as markets struggle to get a handle on Warsh The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% with almost zero changes to the statement, but three hawkish dissents from regional bank presidents Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari and Beth... 29th July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions likely to tighten again The immigration crackdown has not generated widespread labour shortages, even in those sectors most exposed. Nonetheless, if we are right to expect stronger labour demand in the coming quarters, then... 28th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Core goods inflation unlikely to fully normalise The PPI and import price data suggest that the AI buildout and supply constraints from the war in Iran will prevent core goods inflation from fully normalising, even as tariff effects ease. 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update An (updated) primer on the USMCA joint review We think the popularity of the trade agreement among domestic firms, the potential for backlash from an increasingly assertive Congress, and the likelihood of intervention by the Supreme Court should... 2nd July 2026 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update How much will higher yields affect the debt burden? While the rise in Treasury yields over the past four months could increase the US government’s interest costs by about 0.3% of GDP over the next year, it is unlikely on its own to shake investor... 30th June 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Fed opens the door to a hike as soon as September The median projection now points to a clear chance of the FOMC hiking and, with Chair Kevin Warsh stating “we’ve got some work to do on the price stability point”, we continue to expect the Fed to... 17th June 2026 · 4 mins read
