US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor M1 narrow money continues to contract at a double-digit annual pace, as higher interest rates temper demand for low-return deposits. Broader money growth is not faring quite as badly, since higher... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market almost back into balance A growing number of indicators suggest that the labour market is no longer much tighter than it was in 2019 and that, as a result, wage growth is also likely to slow towards pre-pandemic levels soon... 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market has normalised The July JOLTS data cast further doubt on the idea that the Fed will need to keep rates high for longer. With the job quits rate now below its pre-pandemic peak and the job openings rate also rapidly... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update SAVE to soften blow as student loan payments resume The SAVE student loan plan eases the burden on low-income households and should reduce the economic impact as repayments resume in October. Nonetheless, with the hit to disposable incomes just one of... 29th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Slower pace of labour market loosening Falling vacancies in sectors where wage growth has been particularly strong will provide some comfort to the Fed, however the JOLTS survey showed that the broader labour market remained resilient in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Credit conditions remain tight The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows that, even though the banking crisis has faded, credit conditions remain unusually tight. Although the net percentage of banks tightening... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed tightening cycle done As everyone expected, the Fed increased its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, taking the fed funds target range to between 5.25% and 5.50% but, while officials are possibly still eyeing one... 26th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Rising disability not a drag on labour supply The sharp rise in the share of the population with a disability may reflect the legacy of the pandemic. But with the rise in disability rates doing little to keep people out of work, it isn’t... 25th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Rising prime-age participation driven by women The resurgence in female prime-age participation to a record high is helping to support labour force growth, but the recent rapid pace of improvement is likely to fade soon. 17th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Boost from “excess” savings now exhausted The resilience of consumption over the past year is partly because households have been willing to save less of their income than before the pandemic, which lends some support to the idea that... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Limited scope for immigration to ease labour shortages The surge in immigration and improvement in labour supply has helped ease wage growth moderately. But, with limited scope for a further rapid recovery in the labour force, we think a sustained period... 10th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market remains resilient The fall in job openings in May suggests that labour shortages continue to ease, although the rebound in the job quits rate implies that wage growth is set to slow only gradually. 6th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Hawkish tone at Sintra forum, particularly in Europe Central bankers have struck a hawkish tone at the ECB’s forum in Sintra this week, suggesting that rates haven’t yet peaked and cuts are not on the cards for some time. But there were some interesting... 28th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jun.) Easing financial conditions, improving consumer sentiment and the stabilisation in housing suggest that the risks of an imminent recession have eased slightly. Nonetheless, our tracking models still... 22nd June 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Fed pauses, but eyes 50bp in additional rate hikes As expected, the Fed held its policy rate unchanged at between 5.00% and 5.25% today, but it made clear in the accompanying statement that pause was only to allow officials to “assess additional... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Will debt ceiling deal weigh on the economy? The debt ceiling deal constitutes a modest fiscal tightening, principally because it will guarantee the resumption of student loan repayments this summer, but we aren’t worried that the post-deal... 1st June 2023 · 5 mins read
