US Economics Update Rise in corporate bankruptcies not a big concern The rise in corporate bankruptcies last year is not a huge concern, but it does add to the sense that firms are struggling more than the headline GDP and labour market data suggest. That in turn... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Lower quits point to easing wage growth The November JOLTS data, when paired with recent employment reports, show a labour market returning to pre-pandemic norms. Meanwhile, the fall in the private quits rate to its lowest since the height... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed delivers a hawkish rate cut The Fed did cut interest rates by an additional 25bp today, as was largely expected, taking the fed funds rate down to between 4.25% and 4.50%. But the vote was not unanimous and, in a hawkish shift... 18th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS shows labour market finding a floor The rebound in job openings in October suggests that labour market conditions are stabilising at a healthy level. Meanwhile, despite a small rebound in the private quits rate, it still points to wage... 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Where are the residential construction layoffs? Residential construction employment has been performing much better than the slump in construction over the past year might have implied. We suspect that is because job losses in the new home... 25th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update It's Trump's world, his cabinet just live in it Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding what policies president-elect Donald Trump will enact during his second term, there is a temptation to read a lot into his Cabinet nominations, but we... 25th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook 1734620400 Our senior economists hosted an online briefing to discuss the final Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions of 2024.
US Economics Update Fed slows pace of rate cuts; independence probably safe As expected, after a run of stronger activity and inflation data since it started its rate cutting cycle with a 50bp reduction in mid-September, the Fed opted for a more modest 25bp cut at the... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS continues to show a normalising labour market Despite the sharp fall in job openings, September’s JOLTS data show a labour market normalising rather than rapidly deteriorating. With October’s payrolls gain likely to have been hampered by... 29th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Harris versus Trump - as election day approaches With two weeks to go until election day, Donald Trump has opened a meaningful lead over Kamala Harris in betting markets, although the latest polling suggests the race remains too close to call. To... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Residual seasonality something to note, not fear Evidence of residual seasonality in the core PCE deflator means there is a risk that core price pressures will rebound in the new year. That said, the residual seasonality is concentrated in core... 14th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is the labour market really that strong? The unexpectedly strong 254,000 gain in payroll employment in September was a welcome surprise, but the deterioration in most other labour market indicators suggests this was a one-off rather than the... 7th October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Are the upside risks to core inflation mounting? We continue to believe that core PCE inflation will return to the 2%target on a sustained basis early next year, as labour market conditions gradually ease. Up until recently we would also have argued... 3rd October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS point to further easing in wage growth The August JOLTS data provides some reassurance against fears that labour market conditions will deteriorate further, while the sharp fall in the private quits rate suggests that core services... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
