US Chart Pack Residential investment growth set to slow We expect GDP growth to accelerate over the next few quarters as the Federal fiscal tightening begins to ease although, at the same time, it looks like the economic recovery will receive less support... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Employment gains mean that QE3 tapering still on track Even as estimates for second-quarter GDP growth have been revised lower in response to the disappointing incoming news on activity, the continued resilience of monthly employment gains has persuaded... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Higher rates unlikely to derail recovery We doubt that the rapid rise in long-term interest rates in recent weeks will derail the economic recovery. For a start, rates are still at unusually low levels. Moreover, the primary reason why the... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Low inflation gives Fed more flexibility The fall in inflation to well below the Fed's 2% target rate is another reason why the central bank will be in no hurry to slow the pace of its monthly asset purchases. Headline CPI inflation fell to... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Spring slowdown unlikely to be severe If the economy has entered another spring slowdown, we doubt it will be as severe as in recent years. Admittedly, the latest news on employment and retail sales suggests that the economy lost some... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Recovery strengthening The US economic recovery appears to be strengthening. Despite the impact of the payroll tax hike and higher gasoline prices on real incomes, first-quarter real consumption growth is on course to... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising gasoline prices another blow for households The surge in retail gasoline prices to $3.80 per gallon, from $3.40 only a month ago, will put more pressure on households who are already struggling to cope with the expiry of the payroll tax cut... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack 2013 off to a weak start In the end the looming fiscal cliff didn't appear to have any severe impact on the wider economy, with the growth rates of employment, retail sales and even durable goods orders all accelerating over... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Industry stagnating There are some signs that the recent stagnation in manufacturing output won’t last long. The Markit manufacturing PMI rose to a seven-month high in December and, although the headline index of the ISM... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Housing continues to strengthen Amid all the serious downside risks to the economic outlook, including the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff negotiations and the possibility of a resurgence of the crisis in the euro-zone, the... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Consumers rally, while businesses run scared The US economy has developed something of a split personality lately, with consumer confidence hitting a five-year high, while capital goods orders, an indicator of business investment, fall at a pace... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US economy hit by global slowdown The global economic slowdown appears to be having a more marked impact on the US economy, with exports falling sharply in July and manufacturing output dropping in August. The survey evidence now... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Businesses becoming increasingly cautious The sharp downturn in capital goods orders suggests that the continuing euro-zone crisis and growing uncertainty about the outlook for US fiscal policy are having an increasingly marked impact on... 27th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Spring slowdown flows into summer The economic slowdown that began in the spring months has continued into the summer. We estimate that GDP grew at an annualised rate of around 1.5% in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation has further to fall Headline CPI inflation dropped below the Fed's 2% target rate in May for the first time in 16 months and, with gasoline prices still falling, it looks like it could be down to around 1.5% within... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Recovery standing firm So far there is little evidence that the recent softening in economic growth is developing into a more significant slowdown. The leading index and a weighted average of the two ISM activity indices... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read