US Chart Pack Labour market stalls The modest 120,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in March, half the pace of job creation in February, prompted fears that the recovery could be faltering again. The rise in weekly initial... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation still set to fall The recent rise in gasoline prices won’t prevent inflation from falling, but it will limit just how far and fast it drops. What’s more, evidence of a strengthening in underlying price pressures... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Is this the real deal? Hopes that the US economy has finally embarked on a significant and sustained recovery are likely to be dashed by events overseas. There is little doubt that the economy has strengthened in the early... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack GDP growth to slow again in first quarter It appears that GDP growth accelerated to around 2.4% annualised in the fourth quarter, up from 1.8% in the third. But we suspect that, despite the apparent strength in some of the incoming data, it... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply in 2012 We expect the rapid run up in CPI inflation this year to be completely reversed next year, although the core inflation rate will fall more modestly. 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Euro mess is by far the biggest risk to US outlook There is an incredible amount of uncertainty surrounding what impact a euro-zone recession and the potential break up of the single currency could have on the US economy and financial markets. The... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Faster Q3 GDP growth won't be sustained Our latest calculations suggest that GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% annualised in the third quarter, more than double the rate in the second. The rebound in spending on motor vehicles as the Japanese... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Policymakers running out of options Even if another recession is avoided, the economic recovery is going to remain unusually lacklustre. It seems unlikely that a divided Congress will pass much of President Obama's $450bn stimulus plan... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slowdown becomes more sinister The economic slowdown appears to have developed into something more sustained and perhaps even more sinister. The recent plunge in equity prices, the possibility that jobs growth will flounder and a... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Q2 GDP growth may not be as bad as feared Despite a marked slowdown in consumption growth to less than 1% annualised, it appears that overall GDP growth may actually have picked up a little to 2.3% in the second quarter, from 1.9% in the... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation on the rise The acceleration in core inflation suggests that the threat of deflation has eased significantly, at least for a while, which is one of the key reasons why we don't expect the Fed to respond to the... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation close to peaking The lagged effect of the rapid run-up in commodity prices over the past year will push CPI inflation up from 3.1% in April to close to 4% by the summer. But now that the upward trend in commodity... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack How bad was first-quarter GDP growth? The latest consensus forecast still puts first-quarter GDP growth as high as 1.8% annualised, whereas our own calculations suggest it was no higher than 1.0%. (See Chart below.) Furthermore, despite... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market slowly recovering The labour market is finally showing signs of improvement, with the unemployment rate falling sharply from 9.8% last November to 8.9% this February. That decline, however, owes more to a large exodus... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Improving activity surveys points to strong first half The economic outlook appears to have improved recently, with both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices improving to multi-year highs in January. We certainly anticipate a strong first... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising commodity prices having mixed effects Rapidly rising commodity prices are beginning to have a marked impact on inflation, real spending and the external trade balance. Over the past six months, agricultural commodity prices have increased... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read