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Japan Drop-In: Takaichi’s election gamble – Fiscal risks, market consequences (9th Feb.)

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AI already making a big contribution to productivity growth

US Economics Update

AI already making a big contribution to productivity growth

The further gains in GDP in the ICT industries in the third quarter, despite another fall in employment, is a clear sign to us that AI is boosting productivity. While other factors help to explain the...

5th February 2026 · 4 mins read

Jobs market health still in question ahead of Jan payrolls

US Economics Weekly

Jobs market health still in question ahead of Jan payrolls

This week's slew of soft labour market data releases – including a further slump in job openings, higher weekly jobless claims, and a rebound in Challenger job cut announcements – has resurfaced...

6th February 2026 · 7 mins read

What Japan’s election could mean for its financial markets

Asset Allocation Focus

What Japan’s election could mean for its financial markets

This weekend’s election in Japan could be bad news for JGBs if the LDP emerges victorious and this prompts expectations of even more fiscal stimulus. That might not be good for the yen either. But it...

4th February 2026 · 9 mins read

Global inflation to undershoot consensus forecasts

Global Inflation Watch

Global inflation to undershoot consensus forecasts

Global inflation looks set to undershoot consensus forecasts, amid falling commodity prices, cooling labour markets, and an absence of inflationary spillovers from tariffs. In the US, we expect core...

3rd February 2026 · 18 mins read

$FT fracturing$

FT names 'The Fractured Age' one of its books of the year

Read Martin Wolf's review

Three key questions on the equity market wobble

Capital Daily

Three key questions on the equity market wobble

While the US stock market has bounced back today, the ongoing struggles of the previously ascendant tech firms in the wake of another poorly received set of earnings reports raises several tricky...

6th February 2026 · 5 mins read

$Global fracturing dashboard 2026$

Data Dashboard

Global fracturing dashboard 2026

The latest refresh of this interactive dashboard shows how the US and China-led blocs that have come to dominate the world economy are changing shape – and what this means for global activity.

The causes of fiscal crises and their economic impact

Global Economics Focus

The causes of fiscal crises and their economic impact

History shows that there are no debt or deficit thresholds beyond which a fiscal crisis is inevitable. Rather, crises stem from a mix of high debt, poor debt dynamics, and weak fiscal credibility...

24th July 2025 · 26 mins read

global economy

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r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era

GLOBAL ECONOMICS

r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era

In-depth analysis and extensive forecasts on why interest rates will settle over the long term at higher levels than in the pre-pandemic era.

Central Bank Hub

Monetary Policy

Central Bank Hub

One-stop-shop guide to global monetary policymaking. Bookmark this page and check back for the latest forecasts and analysis of the world's major central banks.

Latest from Capital Economics

Housing could take a while to thaw

Canada Economics Weekly

Housing could take a while to thaw

The local real estate board data for January shows that the housing market is still struggling, and we probably can’t blame it all on the weather. Meanwhile, the large fall in the unemployment rate...

6th February 2026 · 4 mins read

Jobs market health still in question ahead of Jan payrolls

US Economics Weekly

Jobs market health still in question ahead of Jan payrolls

This week's slew of soft labour market data releases – including a further slump in job openings, higher weekly jobless claims, and a rebound in Challenger job cut announcements – has resurfaced...

6th February 2026 · 7 mins read

Three key questions on the equity market wobble

Capital Daily

Three key questions on the equity market wobble

While the US stock market has bounced back today, the ongoing struggles of the previously ascendant tech firms in the wake of another poorly received set of earnings reports raises several tricky...

6th February 2026 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Annual GDP (2025)

The slowdown in Russian GDP growth to 1.0% in 2025 is consistent with a slight pickup in momentum in the economy in Q4, but the big picture is that the economy is under strain due to the war...

6th February 2026 · 2 mins read

South Africa’s DA leadership battle, AGOA is extended

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa’s DA leadership battle, AGOA is extended

While the South African Democratic Alliance's change in leadership in April is unlikely to affect the stability of the Government of National Unity, there are key risks ahead including municipal...

6th February 2026 · 5 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Consumer Sentiment (Feb 2026)

The robust pick-up in the current conditions index hints that the labour market, while still weak is improving, while inflation expectations seem to be heading in the right direction. Admittedly the...

6th February 2026 · 2 mins read

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