Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) OPEC+ and China, not Trump, will drive prices in 2025 Trump’s election victory won’t have a big impact on commodity markets in the short term. US oil and gas production is near record highs and prices... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Update Trump-shaped shadow looms large over COP29 COP29 – which is set to kick off in Baku next week – has been dubbed the ‘finance COP’ given that the top priority for negotiators will be to agree on a new climate finance pledge. However, Trump’s... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Trump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & China Large US tariffs would hurt China’s export sector but less than many suppose. We estimate that the direct impact of even a 60% US tariff on goods from China would be well under 1% of China’s GDP. The... 7th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus The macro and market consequences of a second Trump administration Donald Trump’s second presidency is likely to result in lower US GDP growth, faster US inflation and a slightly higher path for the fed funds rate. The implications for the rest of the world are... 6th November 2024 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily The return of Trump and the fortunes of the Trump Trade This early edition of the Capital Daily provides our first thoughts on the market reaction to the likelihood of a second Trump term. 6th November 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Election The presidential election remains too close to call, but Donald Trump does appear to be edging ahead in some of the key swing states. At close to 11.30pm ET, the NYT gives Trump an 91% chance of... 6th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Harris versus Trump: Closing thoughts Although the betting markets are still convinced that Donald Trump will win next week’s presidential election, the polls remain much closer – and within the margin of error. 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Focus The US election and market implications for EMs We think that if vice president Harris wins the US presidential election next week, she would be more likely to stick to policy continuity, and EM risk premia would remain low. If former president... 1st November 2024 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The US election and implications for MENA Next week’s US presidential election will have major ramifications for the Middle East and North Africa. Attention will probably focus on how either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump tackle the Israel... 31st October 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Demand from EMs would help cushion Trump tariffs EMs are playing a growing role as substitute markets for Chinese exporters that face rising trade barriers in DMs. A second trade war with a re-elected President Trump would only accelerate that shift... 30th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update US election not going to roil commodity markets The outcome of the US election won’t have a sizeable impact on most commodity prices over the next few months. Instead, differences between the candidates’ views on vehicle emissions, LNG exports and... 29th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How would a collapse of USMCA affect Mexico? A key risk for Mexico from the US election is that a Trump administration could withdraw from the USMCA free-trade agreement. In a plausible scenario in which Mexico were to face a universal import... 29th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Focus Final thoughts on the US election & market implications While the perceived probability of a Trump win has increased over recent weeks, we believe there is still ample scope for a sizeable repricing across markets once the election outcome becomes clear... 28th October 2024 · 14 mins read
US Economics Weekly Could Musk influence a future Trump presidency? If Donald Trump wins the election, we think there are a few policy areas where Elon Musk, who has become one of the campaign's biggest supporters, would try to influence Trump. 25th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Bonds Focus Will Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes? Our central forecast is that there won’t be a fiscally induced ‘crisis’ in the Treasury market. But there is clearly a risk of yields rising in response to higher term premia and more restrictive... 25th October 2024 · 17 mins read
