Latin America Economics Update

How would a collapse of USMCA affect Mexico?

A key risk for Mexico from the US election is that a Trump administration could withdraw from the USMCA free-trade agreement. In a plausible scenario in which Mexico were to face a universal import...

29th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Markets Focus

Final thoughts on the US election & market implications

While the perceived probability of a Trump win has increased over recent weeks, we believe there is still ample scope for a sizeable repricing across markets once the election outcome becomes clear...

28th October 2024 · 14 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Could Musk influence a future Trump presidency?

If Donald Trump wins the election, we think there are a few policy areas where Elon Musk, who has become one of the campaign's biggest supporters, would try to influence Trump.

25th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Bonds Focus

Will Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes?

Our central forecast is that there won’t be a fiscally induced ‘crisis’ in the Treasury market. But there is clearly a risk of yields rising in response to higher term premia and more restrictive...

25th October 2024 · 17 mins read

Capital Daily

How big of a threat is Trump to Asian currencies?

We suspect Asian currencies would underperform under a Trump presidency, even if they don’t seem to have been affected worse than others by the apparent rise in his chances of winning lately.

25th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What would Trump mean for EM monetary policy?

A victory for Donald Trump in the US election would probably result in higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. That’s an environment in which central banks in EMs with strained balance sheets...

24th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico and Trump’s vehicle tariff threat

Recent threats by Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Mexico’s vehicle sector could just be pre-election bluster or an attempt to get concessions from Mexico. But if implemented, they would deal a big...

23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

The impact of a Trump victory on Europe

A Trump victory in the US election would accelerate the structural shifts that are a major challenge for Europe including rising protectionism, reduced export opportunities to China and the US, and...

22nd October 2024 · 6 mins read

US Economics Update

Harris versus Trump - as election day approaches

With two weeks to go until election day, Donald Trump has opened a meaningful lead over Kamala Harris in betting markets, although the latest polling suggests the race remains too close to call. To...

22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Trump's second term - Macro and market implications

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Our senior economist team were online the day after the election to help clients understand the economic and market implications of what we know so far - and what's still to b

US Commercial Property Update

What could a Trump win mean for commercial real estate?

On the back of client questions, we have put together this short primer on the potential impact of a second Trump term on commercial real estate markets, both in the US and elsewhere. The key takeaway...

7th October 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Update

The differences for China in Harris versus Trump

A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and...

12th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

How much damage would Trump tariffs do to Europe?

Several organisations have estimated that a universal 10% tariff on US imports, as proposed by Donald Trump, would reduce euro-zone GDP by at least 1%. We think the hit would be much less than 0.5%.

8th August 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Focus

Trumponomics: Rhetoric versus reality

If implemented in full on day one, Donald Trump’s trade, immigration and fiscal policies would together be stagflationary. We suspect that he will be forced to water down his plans, however, and it...

31st July 2024 · 14 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Trump & ESG markets

We think that a second term for President Trump would probably worsen the outlook for sustainable energy equities at the margin, and also add to the pessimism around stocks in the beleaguered electric...

25th July 2024 · 5 mins read