Europe Economics Update Impact of 10% US tariff on euro-zone would be small We think that the impact of Trump’s proposed 10% universal tariff on euro-zone GDP would be very small, in part because we expect the effect to be offset by a weaker euro. So we aren’t pushing down... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation and CBE meeting, US Middle East policy The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening... 14th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Update One US deficit that won’t worry Trump President-elect Trump’s distaste for trade deficits surely does not extend to worrying about the US’s large-scale import of carbon emissions through trade flows. The global imbalance between importers... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Trump win puts brakes on housing recovery While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump and the war in Ukraine Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the... 14th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tariff threat to German auto sector another headwind In light of the US imposing an additional 25% tariff on auto imports, we're resending this note from last November which looks at the impact of US auto tariffs on the euro-zone. The key point is that... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Will Trump’s next trade war upend the S&P 500? We doubt the S&P 500 will come a cropper in 2025 even though the index fell in 2018 when Donald Trump began to wage a less ambitious trade war than the one he is planning now. 12th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will Trump really be good for US equities? We expect the policies that will be delivered during Donald Trump’s second term to be a headwind for equities in the US. We still anticipate strong gains next year on the back of growing AI-enthusiasm... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s lessons from Trump 1.0, Argentina’s hopes One explanation being put forward to explain the relatively modest moves in the Mexican peso since Trump's election victory is that the country may be spared many of Trump’s tariffs threats (as... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will Trump be good or bad for the economy? The market reaction to Donald Trump’s election victory suggests that, with the Republicans closing in on a clean sweep of Congress too, his return to the White House will be a net positive for the... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How Europe will try to defuse a Trump trade war Following the US election, our working assumption is that the US imposes a 10% universal tariff next year which subtracts around 0.2% from euro-zone GDP – somewhat less than many estimate. But the EU... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly MAGA meets Make in India The Trump trade has pushed the rupee to a fresh low this week and we think further weakness lies ahead. But big moves in the currency are unlikely given the prospect of FX intervention by the RBI... 8th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Trump, the Fed & the outlook for USTs and the dollar With the US election out of the way and markets starting to settle down after some dramatic swings yesterday, attention now turns back to the more humdrum topic of central bank policy and the near... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s Trump challenge Mexico is one of the most vulnerable economies to the policies that US President-elect Trump flagged on the campaign trail. This Update looks at the channels through which it could be affected. One... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts ahead of a new Trump presidency We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news that the Republicans are on course to regain full control of Congress. These include higher... 7th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs... 7th November 2024 · 8 mins read
