Global Economics Focus

Trump and the implications for global fracturing

Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its...

7th January 2025 · 6 mins read

Key reads to get ready for 2025

Commodities Weekly

Trump’s social media outburst won’t worry the EU

President-elect Trump’s social media outburst warning the EU to buy more US oil and gas won’t cause sleepless nights in Brussels. After all, whereas EU officials might have balked had they been...

20th December 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economic Outlook

Trump policies will be mildly stagflationary

We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and immigration curbs via executive action by the...

19th December 2024 · 16 mins read

Global Economics Update

Will Trump bring a halt to US outperformance?

Donald Trump’s policies will be a net drag on US GDP growth over the next couple of years, but we doubt that his re-election will prevent the US from remaining the world’s pre-eminent global economy...

19th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify

Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks...

12th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Commodities Update

The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025

While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain...

3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Focus

Will Trump get his new tax cuts?

Although the Republicans completed a clean sweep in the recent election, we are sceptical that this opens the door to additional fiscal stimulus. We do expect the original Trump tax cuts, which are...

3rd December 2024 · 9 mins read

Capital Daily

Another BRIC in the stronger dollar wall?

President-elect Trump’s latest tariff threat, this time against the “BRICS” economies, is another early taste of his combative approach to trade policy and its potential impact on financial markets...

2nd December 2024 · 4 mins read

Five for 25: The macro themes that will shape next year

Global Economics Update

US import tariffs: your questions answered

We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked.

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Trump tosses first social media hand grenade

Here we go again. This week President-elect Donald Trump lobbed his first social media hand grenade since the election – threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico if both countries didn...

27th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Event

Drop-In: US climate policy under Trump: The IRA, Musk and 'drill, baby, drill'

1733324400

What will a second Trump presidency mean for the green transition? Should investors and companies expect an across-the-board rollback on regulation?

Commodities Update

How to think about US tariffs on oil imports

This is an updated version of a report originally published on 27th November, 2024. US tariffs on oil imports from Canada and Mexico would probably result in lower oil output in Canada and Mexico and...

27th November 2024 (Updated 30th January 2025) · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 24)

Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as...

27th November 2024 · 1 min read