Latin America Economics Focus

Unpacking Mexico’s ties with the US

Mexico is arguably the most vulnerable economy to US trade protectionism. This in-depth analysis maps out economic and financial linkages between Mexico and its northern neighbour to provide a clearer...

15th January 2025 · 15 mins read

Global Economics Update

Tariff front-running to temporarily boost world trade

There is already some evidence of US importers increasing orders, at least for goods from China, before Trump’s proposed tariffs come into effect. We think this may continue in the next few months...

15th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico: better placed to face Trump now?

Mexico is once again bracing for trade protectionism in the US. And while it staved off tariffs in the first round of the trade war, on balance we don’t think it’s in as strong a negotiating position...

14th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Trump, tariffs and global supply chains

If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on...

14th January 2025 · 18 mins read

From US outperformance to the DM bond sell-off – Key questions at 2025’s start

US Economics Weekly

Still waiting for clarity on the Trump agenda

More than two months after Donald Trump and the Republicans completed a narrow clean sweep in last November’s election, and with only 10 days until the inauguration, there is still massive uncertainty...

10th January 2025 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Trump’s plan to end the war – is the timeline shifting?

Expectations for an imminent end to Russia’s war in Ukraine once Trump takes office as US President on 20th January took a knock this week, following an FT report and statements by officials...

10th January 2025 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Panama Canal, Brazil’s shrinking trade surplus

While it’s hard to know how seriously we should take President-elect Trump’s comments this week that the US should re-acquire the Panama Canal, it does add to the evidence that the incoming...

10th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Event

US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term

21st January 2025, 3:00PM GMT

As the president-elect again prepares to take office, our US team held a special briefing to walk clients through what to expect in the opening phase of the second Trump admin

Canada Economics Focus

Trump, Tariffs, and the 51st State

Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric against Canada suggests we should take his tariff threats seriously. We already assume that Trump includes Canada in a likely 10% universal import...

9th January 2025 · 19 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Trump 2.0 – US and Asia macro implications

14th January 2025, 8:00AM GMT

2025 has started with a bang as bonds have sold off amid growth and inflation fears – and the operating environment may only get more tricky from here.

Global Economics Focus

Trump and the implications for global fracturing

Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its...

7th January 2025 · 6 mins read

Key reads to get ready for 2025

Commodities Weekly

Trump’s social media outburst won’t worry the EU

President-elect Trump’s social media outburst warning the EU to buy more US oil and gas won’t cause sleepless nights in Brussels. After all, whereas EU officials might have balked had they been...

20th December 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economic Outlook

Trump policies will be mildly stagflationary

We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and immigration curbs via executive action by the...

19th December 2024 · 16 mins read