US Economics Update What to make of Trump’s latest trade plans? The “America First Trade Policy” White House memorandum makes it clear that tariffs are coming, although we still have little clarity on the timing. There are some signs that a universal tariff could... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Mr Trump goes (back) to Washington President Donald Trump returned to the White House today with pen already in hand to sign what is expected to be close to 100 executive orders. That flurry of executive action will set the tone on... 20th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s peso risk, Sheinbaum’s Made in Mexico plan The decision by Argentina's government to slow the rate of depreciation of the peso will help to bring down inflation further. But it will also lead to a further appreciation in the real exchange rate... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Near-term inflation outlook improves The December PPI, CPI and import price data were together consistent with a muted 0.14% m/m increase in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator measure. After a brief resurgence in inflationary... 17th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Commodities caught in the geopolitical crossfire As the ramp-up in US sanctions against Russia's energy sector has demonstrated, commodities are increasingly being caught in the crossfire of broader geopolitical machinations and tariff policy. The... 17th January 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: INR weakness won’t prevent February rate cut Some commentators are suggesting that the recent weakness in the rupee will prevent the RBI from cutting interest rates next month. We see it differently. After all, the pace of depreciation is being... 17th January 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Six key questions on Trump & the dollar Donald Trump’s election win two months ago has already contributed to a rally in the US dollar, and we think there is a bit more to come this year. More broadly, the second Trump administration will... 15th January 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Unpacking Mexico’s ties with the US Mexico is arguably the most vulnerable economy to US trade protectionism. This in-depth analysis maps out economic and financial linkages between Mexico and its northern neighbour to provide a clearer... 15th January 2025 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariff front-running to temporarily boost world trade There is already some evidence of US importers increasing orders, at least for goods from China, before Trump’s proposed tariffs come into effect. We think this may continue in the next few months... 15th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: better placed to face Trump now? Mexico is once again bracing for trade protectionism in the US. And while it staved off tariffs in the first round of the trade war, on balance we don’t think it’s in as strong a negotiating position... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Trump, tariffs and global supply chains If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on... 14th January 2025 · 18 mins read
US Economics Weekly Still waiting for clarity on the Trump agenda More than two months after Donald Trump and the Republicans completed a narrow clean sweep in last November’s election, and with only 10 days until the inauguration, there is still massive uncertainty... 10th January 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Trump’s plan to end the war – is the timeline shifting? Expectations for an imminent end to Russia’s war in Ukraine once Trump takes office as US President on 20th January took a knock this week, following an FT report and statements by officials... 10th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Panama Canal, Brazil’s shrinking trade surplus While it’s hard to know how seriously we should take President-elect Trump’s comments this week that the US should re-acquire the Panama Canal, it does add to the evidence that the incoming... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
