US Commercial Property Update Higher for longer to push all-property cap rates above 5% On the back of upward adjustments to our 10-Year Treasury yield forecasts, we now expect to see a larger increase in cap rates. This will see office cap rates rise to over 6.5% by end-2024, pushing... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2023) The -1.4% quarterly return in Q3 meant that there have now been four consecutive negative quarters for all-property total returns. That figure was dragged down by a 5% q/q fall in office values as all... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Oct. 23) After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook West coast markets set to feel the greatest pain We expect demand to be weakest in the six major markets, but new supply is also set to be low in those markets. Elsewhere, we think southern metros will continue to see stronger absorption, though... 18th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Decline in values to match GFC; offices fare worst With economic activity weakening, we expect rental growth to continue trending downwards over the next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched despite property yields continuing to rise at... 4th October 2023 · 36 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall through 2024 - retail to outperform With the economy showing signs of slowing and transaction volumes likely to stay low in H2 2023, a tough 6-12 months lies in store for commercial real estate. We still expect cap rates to rise on the... 25th September 2023 · 22 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Sep. 23) After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 22nd September 2023 · 1 min read
Event Property Drop-In: US CRE – Updated forecasts and more downside risks 28th September 2023, 4:30PM BST The bad news around US commercial real estate continues to roll in, but appraisal-based indices have so far only fallen by 10%.
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Aug. 23) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed a reversal of last quarter’s forecast upgrades, bringing the consensus view more in line with our own. The surge in interest rates thanks to high inflation is... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How concerning is the fall in CRE equity prices? Rising interest rates have pushed down commercial property equities, which implies capital values will come under further downward pressure. That said, the large correction in equities seen in 2022... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2023) All-property values are down by 10% from their mid-2022 peaks, but we think there is still another 15% to come by the end of 2024. Much of that price fall will be driven by a rise in cap rates in... 23rd August 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2023) Total returns were negative again in Q2 at -2.0% q/q. This was dragged down by the office sector, where values fell by 7% and quarterly returns were -5.8%, with all other sectors outperforming the all... 26th July 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jul. 23) Higher-than-expected core inflation means interest rates are now set to be higher for longer and we still think the economy will enter a mild recession later this year. That’s not a great backdrop for... 20th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update Uneasy outlook for global commercial property We have made only minor changes to our latest global forecasts which still imply that property will underperform other assets in the short to medium term. Further out, real estate returns are set to... 19th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook San Francisco and Seattle values to drop 40% in 2023-25 Further downgrades to our national office outlook have driven corresponding cuts to return prospects in our metro-level forecasts this quarter. San Francisco still has the poorest outlook, with our... 7th July 2023 · 12 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall by another 15%, offices to fare worse The effects of March’s regional bank failures have yet to come through in the performance data, but transaction volumes have fallen off a cliff. Signs of distress in offices are growing as the sector... 29th June 2023 · 20 mins read
