US Economics Focus

Trumponomics: Rhetoric versus reality

If implemented in full on day one, Donald Trump’s trade, immigration and fiscal policies would together be stagflationary. We suspect that he will be forced to water down his plans, however, and it...

31st July 2024 · 14 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela votes, Mexico’s gigafactory & inflation worries

Opinion polls suggest that Venezuela’s election on Sunday could bring Chavismo to an end, allowing the economy to open up and for sanctions to be lifted. But we doubt that the economic damage of the...

26th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Biden calls for AGOA extension, SA inflation

The 21st Forum on the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) took place in Washington this week with attention focussed on not only extending the legislation but also improving it in light of...

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (July 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on...

24th July 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt’s energy woes need a permanent fix

The electricity blackouts that have blighted Egypt this summer may be nearing an end. But in the absence of new major gas discoveries, in the longer run rising energy demand will result in renewed...

23rd July 2024 · 5 mins read

Climate Economics Update

China green exports hit a new record high

Increases in solar panel and battery exports propelled our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes to a record high in June. Given the rapid expansion in Chinese manufacturing capacity...

22nd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina intervenes (again), Q2 shaping up to be weaker

Argentine financial assets sold off this week after Economy Minister Caputo announced that the central bank will start to sell dollars in the parallel market. The plan shows that the government is...

19th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Current account deficits, MNB rate cut guidance

Balance of payments data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week showed unexpected current account deficits in Poland and Czechia in May, but the big picture is that external positions are...

19th July 2024 · 7 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Additional semiconductor curbs won’t cripple exports

Japan's government seems to have intervened in the foreign exchange markets to strengthen the yen yet again last week and we think that the chances of a sustained rebound in the yen are rising...

19th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2024)

EM recoveries have been stronger than expected this year, but growth in aggregate will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer...

18th July 2024 · 1 min read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan External Trade (June 2024)

While the widening of the trade deficit in June points to a sizeable drag from net exports on Q2 GDP growth, activity should still have rebounded last quarter.

18th July 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2024)

Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data point to some divergence in GDP growth in major economies in Q2. On the...

15th July 2024 · 0 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Food inflation, US tariffs, Colombia’s public finance risks

The raft of June inflation data out this week was not as bad as the rise in the headline rates would suggest, as higher food inflation masked falls in in core inflation. Core inflation appears most...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

PBOC narrows rate corridor, overcapacity worsens

The PBOC’s expanded open market operations effectively narrow the interest rate corridor for short-term interbank rates. This won’t have any immediate consequences for monetary conditions. But it does...

12th July 2024 · 6 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (Jun. 2024)

Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in 15 months, with export volumes hitting record highs. We think exports will stay robust in the near term despite increased Western tariffs. Import volumes...

12th July 2024 · 3 mins read