China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jun. 2024) Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in 15 months, with export volumes hitting record highs. We think exports will stay robust in the near term despite increased Western tariffs. Import volumes... 12th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2024) Net capital inflows into EMs remained positive over the past month, largely reflecting continued strong inflows into EM bonds, particularly Turkey, while there were outflows post-election in Mexico... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi pension changes, Saudi and Egypt Q1 BoP data The increase in Saudi Arabia statutory retirement age could increase the size of the labour force by 10% by 2040 and, in turn, lift potential GDP growth by as much as 1%-pt per annum. Meanwhile, Q1’s... 11th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil activity cooling Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth is likely to pick up, and markedly so in 2025. But that will be driven by rising oil output. We think that activity in the non-oil economy will slow. Indeed, there are signs... 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Shipping Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Shipping costs have now risen far enough to start adding to global CPI inflation. However, so far, the boost to prices is probably only in the region of 0.1%, on average. What’s more, surging freight... 10th July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Turkey losing external competitiveness? Turkey’s economy has maintained strong external price competitiveness since the pandemic (mirrored by rapid export growth). But measures of competitiveness have shown a noticeable decline in the past... 9th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Latest trade data spell good news for Iberian ports Timely estimates of trade through Europe’s busiest seaports so far this year have broadly mirrored relative economic performance across Europe, as volumes through Iberia’s ports have recovered while... 4th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of... 4th July 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response International Trade (May) The trade deficit widened slightly to $75.1bn in May, from $74.5bn, as exports fell by 0.7% m/m, outpacing a 0.3% m/m decline in imports. Nevertheless, the decline in exports was more modest than the... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Will rising JGB yields cause capital repatriation? In view of the wider interest, we are resending this publication to include clients of our Global Markets Service. We apologise to readers of our Japan Economics Service who are receiving it twice... 1st July 2024 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The US election and EMs Under a second Trump administration, the imposition of large tariffs on China would hurts its economy but could speed up investment in manufacturing capacity elsewhere. However, a broader global... 28th June 2024 (Updated 6th November 2024) · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Unpacking the further slump in FDI The further slump in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India in Q1 seems in large part a reflection of higher global interest rates. One implication therefore is that the slump will... 28th June 2024 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jun. 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy has regained some momentum in recent quarters and should continue to do relatively... 28th June 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM easing cycle moving into a new phase Emerging markets in Asia and parts of Europe will continue to perform well and better than most expect this year, but we think that Latin America will lag behind. The EM monetary easing cycle is... 27th June 2024 · 26 mins read
