Commodities Update China's commodity imports remain weak China’s commodity imports rose m/m in July, particularly those of copper and soybeans. Overall, this was more a reflection of weak imports in June and to a lesser extent the entire first half of the... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (July) Today’s trade data for July should ease fears that China’s exports are being hit by slowing global growth. Nonetheless, the increase in the trade surplus underlines the fact that China is not... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Ind. Prod. (Jun.), Trade (Jun.) & BRC Retail Sales (Jul.) The further falls in the markets earlier this morning were followed by yet more disappointing news on the UK’s economic recovery. The recovery was already struggling, but the recent market mayhem has... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Market mayhem sets gloomy backdrop for Inflation Report The mayhem in the markets last week has set a gloomy backdrop for the Bank of England’s Inflation Report published this week. 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a US default mean for Asia? Policymakers across the region are rightly concerned about the potential consequences of a debt crisis in the US. We believe that the impact on Emerging Asia’s economies of a one or two notch... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How would China react to a US downgrade? China may be the US government’s largest foreign creditor but it has no better option than to hope for the best and try to calm any market jitters in the event of a US downgrade. 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Export jump in June supports recovery The rapid rise in Japanese exports in June adds to the evidence that production continued to recover quickly in Q2. In Q3 it is likely the pace of the recovery will slow as growth in the global... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) Canada's merchandise trade deficit narrowed trivially in May, from C$0.86bn to C$0.81bn. Even so, we still estimate that quarterly net exports were a significant drag on the economy in the second... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) Even though the trade deficit widened in May, to a level last seen just after the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, it still looks as though net trade made a decent positive contribution to... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Emerging Europe stay under the radar? In contrast to governments in the euro-zone’s periphery, the economies of Emerging Europe are not facing a solvency crisis. However, large external financing requirements mean the region is vulnerable... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Trade (May) June’s better than expected consumer prices figures brought signs that underlying price pressures might be starting to ease and, along with May’s dreadful trade figures, pushed the interest rate... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Why should the euro-zone crisis worry Egypt and Tunisia? The negative outlook for the euro-zone economies will increase pressure on the economies of Egypt and Tunisia, both of which have been hit hard by political turmoil. The European Union (EU) is the... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of commodities collapse China's imports of industrial commodities dropped sharply in the second quarter, indeed by more than they did during the global recession. Imports may well rebound in the second half of the year, but... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No need to panic over inflation surge June's increase in inflation was largely caused by an acceleration in pork prices which is unlikely to last. Non-food prices did not rise at all last month, supporting the view that broad price... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s twin deficits cloud an otherwise bright outlook Poland’s economy remains in something of a ‘sweet spot’ for now, but recent upward revisions to the current account shortfall reinforce our long-standing concerns about the country’s twin deficits. In... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US external position not such a big risk to the dollar Although the US is running a budget deficit equal to 9% of GDP and a current account deficit of 3% of GDP, its net external liabilities at 17% of GDP are not actually that large. Last year, they even... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
