China Data Response Trade (Mar.) China’s first monthly trade deficit in six years might win it some respite from pressure to do more over its exchange rate, particularly if followed, as we expect, by a resumption of renminbi... 10th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the sterling boost ever arrive? (Q2 2010) Hopes for a strong recovery in the UK economy rest on a decent boost to the external sector from the drop in the pound. But it is looking less and less likely that the exporting sector will manage to... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China set for a well-timed trade deficit The timing of China’s first monthly trade deficit in six years, if confirmed by March’s data, is almost too good to be true. 30th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) Q4’s national accounts and balance of payments releases left the UK economy looking both a bit stronger and a bit better balanced than before. But they do not alter the big picture of a sluggish and... 30th March 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Recovery in world trade losing steam Today’s CPB Trade Monitor shows that global trade slipped back in January. The weakness should be short-lived but the recovery from now on will be slow and a hard slog. We believe that GDP growth in... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can exporters cope with a stronger renminbi? Many low-end exporters have wafer-thin margins, but that doesn’t necessarily mean currency appreciation would be a threat to their survival. Talk that narrow margins are a major obstacle to currency... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Feb.) Japan’s exports are predictably booming in year-on-year terms as the post-Lehmans slump in world trade drops out of the annual comparison. More revealingly, the volume of exports is heading for... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Lower pound still not helping much Last week’s trade figures probably won the prize for most disappointing economic data so far this year. Although the snow may have been partly to blame, there has been a deteriorating trend in the... 15th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Jan.) & BRC Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s UK trade figures suggested that the much needed pick-up in the external sector is still not in evidence. While other data also underlining the vulnerability of the housing and consumer... 9th March 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A harder grind for world trade from now on Today’s CPB Trade Monitor shows that global trade grew rapidly in December. Asia is driving the upturn and will continue to lead the way in 2010 and 2011. But the big improvement in world trade has... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jan.) & Small Business Confidence (Feb.) The annual growth of Japan’s exports predictably soared in January due to favourable base effects. More revealingly, exports continued their gradual recovery in month-onmonth terms. Today’s upbeat... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker euro to offer exporters little respite The latest news from the euro-zone external sector suggests that although exports are expanding strongly, the strong euro is taking its toll on the sector. The recent weakening of the euro is... 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response E-Z Trade Balance (Dec.) & Spanish GDP (Q4) December’s healthy rise in euro-zone exports suggests that exporters are continuing to cope with the strong euro. But the cost has been a sharp squeeze in firms’ margins. This casts doubts on whether... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish current account concerns start to build After shrinking markedly from the levels seen in mid-2008, Turkey’s current account deficit has begun to widen once again. While the deficit has not yet reached danger levels, the bigger picture is... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Dec.) & BRC Retail Sales (Jan.) The argument over whether Labour’s National Insurance rise or the Conservatives’ efficiency savings will cost more jobs detracts from the bigger picture that the required fiscal squeeze will result in... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
