Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish current account risks on the rise Turkey’s current account deficit was smaller than expected in June, but it widened as a share of GDP over Q2 as a whole. What’s more, while the quantity of financing does not appear to be a concern at... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise in German imports is not as good as it seems The recent surge in German imports has brought hope that the recovery there is starting to benefit the rest of the world. But Germany is still running a very large trade surplus and the persistent... 10th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Jun.) & BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.) June’s trade figures were better than expected, but it still looks unlikely that the external sector will be able to offset the weakening already emerging on the consumer side of the economy. 10th August 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response External Trade (Jul.) China’s July trade data suggest that global demand is still strong while the domestic economy is flagging. With the trade surplus not far off a record high, China's critics overseas are unlikely to... 10th August 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade recovery to continue but threats remain The latest CPB Trade Monitor shows that global trade rose in May. We expect the pace of recovery to slow sharply later this year and in 2011 as the world economic upswing loses momentum. In addition... 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jun.) The contribution of net trade to the quarterly increase in Japan’s GDP in Q2 was probably similar to the 0.7 percentage points in Q1, suggesting that overall growth was faster than generally... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s short-lived trade surplus with China Japan’s trade surplus with China in the first quarter is not enough to justify talk of a fundamental shift in the balance of trade between the two countries. A closer look at the recent data suggests... 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (May) Euro-zone exports continued to recover in May. But as the global economic revival loses momentum, weaker export growth will exacerbate the negative effects of the fiscal squeeze on the wider economy. 16th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) Q1’s national accounts highlighted the fragility of the recovery seen so far. We still doubt that the economy is in good enough shape to withstand the fiscal squeeze that is about to start in earnest. 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (May) May’s trade figures continued the recent run of disappointing news on the UK recovery. But at least price pressures in the industrial sector appear to be easing. 9th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan targets closer ties with China A so-called Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement (ECFA) was approved yesterday between Taiwan and China. The deal should increase trade and for Taiwan there are two major implications. Firstly... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade recovery starting to lose momentum The latest CPB Trade Monitor shows that global trade fell back in April, albeit after a large gain in March. We expect the pace of recovery to slow more markedly later this year and in 2011 as the... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update A closer look at May’s trade data May’s external trade data revealed two interesting developments. The first is a growing divergence between trends in the value of exports compared to the volume, probably a consequence of the stronger... 24th June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan is struggling to retain IMF support The delay in implementing a new value added tax has soured relations between Pakistan and the IMF and means that the capital inflow needed to shore up the balance of payments will be slow in coming... 23rd June 2010 · 1 min read
