Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia dwindling current account surplus: causes & consequences Despite continued high oil prices, Russia’s current account surplus has fallen from around 7% of GDP prior to the 2008/09 crisis to around 2% now and is on track to slip into a deficit by 2015. Given... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth in Morocco and Tunisia to remain sluggish Signs of recovery in the euro-zone are encouraging for Morocco and Tunisia. But political problems and large twin fiscal and current account deficits will continue to cloud the economic outlook. 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery quickens as productivity rebounds The run of positive economic news has continued, with quarterly GDP growth in Q2 revised up to 0.7% and August’s CIPS/Markit PMIs pointing to even stronger growth in Q3. The divergence between output... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $39.1bn in July, from $34.5bn in June, is nothing to worry about. For a start, it didn't even fully reverse the unexpected decline in the deficit in June... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) July's discouraging decline in export volumes adds to our concern that Canada is not fully benefitting from the gradually improving US economy. With export competitiveness challenges likely to persist... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2 13) Swiss Q2 GDP data revealed that activity continued to pick up pretty strongly. While modest export growth is likely to mean that the recovery is not particularly rapid, a healthy domestic economy... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian firms hampered by lack of competitiveness Those hoping that the expected pick-up in US domestic demand growth will drive an export-led recovery in Canada are likely to be disappointed. Over the past decade, Canadian firms have suffered a... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters beginning to benefit from weaker currencies The recent increase in manufactured exports may be the first sign that Latin American industry is beginning to feel the benefit of weaker currencies. Nominal exports grew by 2.2% y/y in July, having... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The sharp drop in retail sales in July casts doubt on the ability of “Abenomics“ to boost private consumption. While hot weather may have prevented consumers from spending, there are a number of... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How vulnerable is Asia to capital outflows? Financial markets in Asia have continued to suffer this week but we continue to believe that the region will weather the storm. Vulnerabilities are highest in India. Elsewhere though, even a large... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank still pinning hopes on an unlikely export-led recovery The Bank of Canada is unlikely to make any major changes in its upcoming policy announcement next Wednesday (4th September), but the recent surge in Canadian long-term interest rates could prompt the... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen weakness helps to stabilise current account Investors tend to focus on visible trade when analysing the impact of the weak yen on the current account. The impact on investment income tends to be ignored, even though it is more immediate. Since... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Global trade still lagging behind The latest aggregate data show that world trade remained subdued in both June and July. Forward-looking surveys suggest a small rise in the coming months, but overall there is little reason to expect... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble stays out of the firing line... for now The ruble has fared surprisingly well during the latest EM sell-off, in large part due to the fact that oil prices have edged up over recent weeks. Nonetheless, the ruble is still weaker than the... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is India heading toward crisis? The slide of the rupee has triggered speculation that India is heading toward a balance of payments crisis. We do not think a crisis is on the cards, but the outlook is downbeat and fraught with risks... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Residential investment growth set to slow We expect GDP growth to accelerate over the next few quarters as the Federal fiscal tightening begins to ease although, at the same time, it looks like the economic recovery will receive less support... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
