Japan Data Response External trade (Aug.) There are tentative signs that the weak yen is having the hoped-for effect on external trade. In August, export volumes were growing faster than import volumes for the first time since last May. But a... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack State sector leads a rebound August’s data confirmed that the economy has turned a corner. Industrial output growth was the strongest since spring last year. Investment and exports also gathered pace. It is notable though that... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: twin deficits to keep monetary policy tight A failure to sufficiently rein in large budget and current account deficits means that further monetary tightening is still likely in Ghana, despite the Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Signs of improvement in EM trade data The most recent Emerging Market (EM) trade data show that export growth accelerated in July. What’s more, on the basis of the latest leading indicators, a further improvement in EM exports looks... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Sep.) & Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) German investor sentiment strengthened in September, suggesting that the economic recovery should continue, albeit at a slower pace than in Q2. But the fall in euro-zone export values in July suggests... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Have exporters diversified at the wrong time? The recent slowdown in emerging market (EM) economies begs the question of whether UK exporters have shot themselves in the foot by expanding into these markets in recent years. However, the growth... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fed tapering unlikely to put region’s external positions at risk The turbulence in financial markets over the past few months has raised concerns about how emerging markets will perform as global monetary conditions tighten. In the case of Africa, current account... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How important is the Shanghai Free Trade Zone? The free trade zone about to be set up in Shanghai is intended as a testing ground for new policies, with a focus on liberalising the service sector, and financial services in particular. Successful... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Little threat of a systemic EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US exporters benefitting from euro-zone recovery Over the next two years, US exporters will continue to benefit from the recovery in overseas demand, particularly in the euro-zone. But the global economy is unlikely to be strong enough to generate... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update External financing risks persist in South Africa South Africa’s current account deficit widened in Q2, and the shortfall continues to be funded in largepart by short-term capital inflows. As a result, the economy remains among the most vulnerable to... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Spain staging an export-led recovery? Last week’s data from Spain were pretty encouraging – in particular, the PMI export orders index for August suggested that Spain’s robust export recovery continued in Q3. But other data indicate that... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling current account surpluses are not to be feared Current account deficits in India and Indonesia have rightly caused some concern, but elsewhere in Asia the trend towards smaller current account surpluses should be welcomed. 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recovery gains momentum but capacity still ample The business surveys for August suggest that the global recovery, which accelerated in the second quarter, may have strengthened further in Q3. However, there is still plenty of spare capacity around... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Ind. Prod./ German & French Trade (Jul.) Data for July revealing falls in German and Spanish industrial production and a deterioration of Germany and France’s trade balances support our view that the eurozone’s economic recovery will be very... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Ind. Prod. & Trade (Jul.), BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey (Q3) One criticism levelled at Robert Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) is that – for the S&P 500 at least – the denominator has been depressed by accounting changes. This has led... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
