Asia Economics Update Is China eating Asia’s lunch? Weak Chinese demand for exports from Emerging Asia in recent months has led some commentators to worry that China’s move up the value chain is having unwelcome knock-on effects for the rest of the... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) July’s euro-zone trade data showed that the region’s exporters continued to struggle,suggesting that the uncertain international environment was taking its toll andoffsetting the benefits of a weaker... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising dollar reflects economic strength Even a further rise in the dollar above its current four-year high won’t prevent a period of higher inflation and stronger GDP growth. It would be odd to conclude that the dollar will significantly... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Limited room for growth-friendly fiscal policies While signs of pragmatism have recently emerged in the ongoing fiscal debate in the euro-zone, we think there is currently little room for fiscal policy to play much of a role in tackling low growth... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will public spending really reach a record next year? Ministries’ spending requests for the coming fiscal year have reached a record high, which might raise some questions about the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation. However, these requests... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesian rates to remain high despite falling inflation Despite recent sharp falls in inflation and worries about the slowing economy, Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates on hold amid concerns about the current account position. We expect... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone more to blame for Q2 slowdown than Ukraine The slowdown in Central and South Eastern Europe in the second quarter has raised concerns about the region’s exposure to the crisis in Ukraine. In this Watch, we dig deeper into the GDP data to see... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports pick up, but commodity producers lag behind EM export growth picked up in July, continuing the trend seen over the previous four months, and more timely data suggest that it strengthened further last month. However, there is a growing... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s current account woes return in Q2 South Africa’s balance of payments data for Q2 make for grim reading. The current account deficit widened to its largest as a share of GDP since Q3 2013 and, while exports are likely to pick up later... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Jul.) July’s industrial production and trade figures provided tentative indications that the UK’s strong and stable economic recovery has continued into the third quarter of the year. 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Venezuela on the brink of a balance of payments crisis Rampant inflation, a weakening currency and falling foreign exchange reserves mean that Venezuela has all of the ingredients for a balance of payments crisis. We expect GDP to contract by a cumulative... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Treading water Economic growth in Latin America slowed further in the first half of 2014 and we see little chance of a strong rebound over the coming quarters. The key props to strong growth in the past decade are... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) Stronger-than-expected export growth for August points to healthy foreign demand. In contrast, weaker-than-expected import growth suggests that cooling investment, particularly in the property sector... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Revised) & Current Account (July) The second estimate of Q2 GDP was little changed from the first and still shows a sharp decline in output last quarter. Meanwhile, the current account surplus may widen further in coming months as... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EM vulnerabilities: a stock-take A handful of EMs – mainly in Asia – have taken steps to reduce their external vulnerabilities in the wake of last year’s “Taper Tantrum”. But these countries are the exception rather than the rule... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Gulf between US and euro-zone widens The US and euro-zone economies have diverged further in the past few months, as growth in the single currency area has stalled but the US recovery has stepped up a gear. Moreover, the gap between the... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
