Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) Canada's roller-coaster export performance continued in August, with exports tumbling after strong gains in the previous months. Even so, the export recovery still looks broadly intact. Indeed, a... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery running out of steam? The sharp decline in the manufacturing PMI and smaller fall in the services PMI in September has led some to question the durability of the UK’s economic recovery. There is little reason to be worried... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & Int. Trade (Aug.) September’s strong Employment Report and August’s decent international trade release have increased the chances that the Fed will raise interest rates next March, as we have been forecasting for some... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery aggravates existing imbalances While the economic recovery seems to have broadly maintained its strong pace in the third quarter, the latest national accounts contained signs that the recovery has exacerbated some of the economy’s... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why haven’t euro-zone exports recovered more strongly? The persistent weakness of euro-zone exports seems to have reflected the high level of the euro, tradelinks with Emerging Europe and cost and regulatory pressures on the region’s exporters. While... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Effect of slowdown in China to differ across Africa Stronger trade and investment links mean that Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy as a whole is more exposed to China’s than ever before. We forecast China’s economic growth to slow over the next few years... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy shifts up a gear 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Aussie and Kiwi dollars lead Asia’s currency sell-off Asia’s financial markets performed poorly in September, largely reflecting concerns about the outlook for US monetary policy. The New Zealand and Australian dollars were the worst performers, but... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) The significant revisions to the UK’s national accounts have not changed the fundamental picture that the economy’s performance since the recession began in 2008 has been very weak by historical and... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa comes back into the firing line The South African rand has come under pressure this month as renewed attention on monetary tightening in the US has put the country’s large current account deficit back into the spotlight. The latest... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro's drop doesn't let ECB off the hook The continued depreciation of the euro exchange rate points to much-needed increases in export growth and imported inflation in the coming months. But this does not eliminate the risk of deflation and... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Which countries stand to gain most from lower oil prices? Lower oil prices should provide a boost to the economies of Emerging Asia. However, some countries are likely to benefit more than others. Indonesia and Thailand stand to gain the most, while Malaysia... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Take fiscal pledges with a pinch of salt With the party conference season in full swing, attention has turned from the Scottish referendum to the main parties’ plans for fiscal policy in the next parliament. But while their new pledges may... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook has not changed While the recent softening in price pressures suggests that core inflation won’t hit the Fed’s 2% target until a bit later than we previously thought, we still think it will get there by mid-2015... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth concerns come to the fore The past month has seen renewed concerns about the growth outlook for much of Latin America. GDP in the region grew by just 1.1% y/y in Q2 and the available data so far point to a similar pace of... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks linger in parts of the EM world As the Fed moves towards a first interest rate hike, the Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) shows that financial risks are at a decade low. As such, a systemic emerging market (EM) crisis seems... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
