US Economic Outlook Recent market moves a net positive for GDP growth As a result of the recent slump in crude oil prices and the decline in long-term borrowing costs, we are raising our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 3.3%, from 3.0%. The boost to real consumption... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: Euro-zone clouds outlook, policy to be eased further Renewed weakness in Germany and the crisis in Russia will weigh on the Czech Republic’s key export sector in the coming quarters. However, the conditions are in place for domestic demand to strengthen... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery set to be slow-going Following last year’s sharp downturn, economic growth in Latin America should improve this year and next. But the pace of the recovery will be slow-going and GDP growth will remain far weaker than... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the economic recovery maintain its pace? The latest news suggests that the economic recovery is getting back on track after a slowdown towards the end of last year. Indeed, we remain optimistic about the growth outlook. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) The sharp fall in headline trade growth in January is not cause for alarm as it largely reflects the usual volatility ahead of Chinese New Year, along with the fall in global commodity prices which... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Dec.) The current account surplus rose to a fresh high in December, and should continue to improve in coming months as the trade balance may return to surplus. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Dec.) Whilst December’s trade data are not as bad as they first appear, the strong pound and weak demand from the euro-zone are likely to prevent a material improvement in the external position in 2015. 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Modest recovery continues despite Greek crisis Euro-zone economic activity has continued to recover despite the troubles in Greece. For now, worries about the crisis seem to have been offset by the benefits of a weaker euro and falling producer... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) The trade deficit widened slightly to C$0.6bn in December, from C$0.3bn, but that increase was actually much smaller than expected. An encouraging rebound in export volumes more than offset the... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Shifting dynamics in the tin trade Indonesia’s efforts to dictate the tin market look increasingly futile as China finds a new source of tin ore and lifts domestic refined production. However, despite the changing dynamics, the bigger... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to $46.6bn in December, from $39.8bn, may have wrong-footed the markets (the consensus forecast was $38.0bn). But it was broadly in line with the assumptions that the... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth rate set to recover After slowing in the second half of last year, global growth is likely to gather pace again in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the drop in oil prices since last summer has prompted energy companies... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy starts 2015 on a surer footing While the preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP indicated that the recovery lost pace towards the end of 2014, early 2015 appears to have seen a renewed acceleration. Indeed, monthly indicators of output... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Bargain hunting to boost China’s commodity imports in 2015 Opportunistic buying supported strong growth in Chinese imports of many industrial commodities in 2014. We expect this trend to continue this year, supporting prices. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Housing market to revive just in time for the election While last week’s GDP figures confirmed that the recovery lost momentum at the tail end of 2014, we expect it to regain pace soon. One helpful development in that respect should be an end to the mini... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The 2.6% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was slightly below the 3.0% consensus forecast but, following the breakneck 5.0% gain in the third quarter of last year, this slowdown is nothing to... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
