China Data Response Trade (Jun.) Despite an increase in the headline growth rate, June’s exports were disappointing, perhaps signalling that global demand at the end of the second quarter was not as healthy as had been hoped. China’s... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (May) May’s trade figures provided more disappointing news that manufacturers may be struggling to cope with sterling’s strength. And with exporters still facing a number of headwinds, we expect export... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets? While the European economic recovery probably picked up a bit of speed in the second quarter of the year, there are growing signs that Q2 was as good as it is likely to get. Activity indicators in the... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jun.) & Current Account (May) The Economy Watchers Survey for June shows that optimism about the outlook has stabilised close to pre-tax hike levels and suggests that the economic recovery will continue in the second half of the... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will the US stock market handle Fed tightening? The US stock market has tended to fare quite well during previous Fed tightening cycles. Although we think its performance in the next cycle will be below average, we still expect it to creep higher. 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Energy costs to remain high despite nuclear restart A reshuffle at the nuclear energy watchdog has paved the way for the restart of atomic reactors in Japan. But the economic benefits of this change should not be overplayed. Only around a third of the... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US pulling further ahead of the euro-zone All the evidence suggests that the US economy has bounced back during the past few months, after its weather-induced slump. Business surveys have remained buoyant, credit growth has accelerated and... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Pay growth likely to spring back soon While the economic recovery appears to have accelerated in Q2, workers are still failing to see the benefits in their pay packets. Annual growth in average weekly earnings fell from 2.2% to -1.7% in... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) The decline in the merchandise trade deficit in May looks encouraging, particularly since it was largely driven by a strong rebound in exports. Unfortunately, that rebound was heavily influenced by... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) The first quarter’s national accounts brought some positive news on the pace and balance of the UK’s recovery. And while the current account deficit has remained extremely large, there are reasons to... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Underlying trend in world trade still weak The volume of world trade rose in April, according to data released today by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economics Policy Analysis. But it remains sluggish in year-on-year terms and has been weak... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs take heart as Fed sticks to taper plan Financial conditions across the emerging world have eased in recent months, as continued policy support from central banks in the developed world has supported risk appetite. This in turn has reduced... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Iraq crisis raises contagion fears The unfolding crisis in Iraq has cast a shadow over the region, causing equity markets to tumble. As it happens, the largest MENA economies have only limited trade and financial ties with Iraq... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Latin America’s economy looks set to remain stuck in the slow lane over the next couple of years. The drivers of strong growth over the past decade – including rapid credit growth and strong global... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fall in S. Africa’s current account deficit not as good as it looks The narrowing in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q1 is welcome insofar as it has been one of the country’s key vulnerabilities over the past couple of years. But the narrowing was due to a... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack FX accumulation by firms allows PBOC to step back The People’s Bank (PBOC) further reduced its foreign exchange purchases to around $6bn in May, the lowest in almost a year. Given last month’s large trade surplus, this might suggest that capital... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
