Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) The monthly external trade balance unexpectedly improved to a surplus of $1.9bn in June, which is the best showing in more than two years. To the extent that the improvement reflects stronger growth... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update After Zambia and Ghana, will others turn to the IMF? Recent moves by both Zambia and Ghana to request IMF help have focused attention on vulnerabilities in other economies in the region that run large current account deficits. But strong inflows of... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The decline in the monthly trade deficit to a five-month low of $41.5bn in June, from$44.7bn, means that second-quarter GDP growth will be revised even higher from theinitial estimate of 4.0%... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana faces up to economic woes by turning to the IMF Ghana’s authorities bowed to the inevitable on Sunday by formally requesting help from the IMF in dealing with the country’s enormous twin budget and current account deficits. The most likely form of... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: interest rates do not have much further to rise Policymakers in Colombia hiked interest rates by another 25bp to 4.25% last night but we do not think that the current tightening cycle has much further to run. Inflation is unlikely to pose a problem... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Major shockwaves from Argentine default unlikely We do not expect Argentina’s default to trigger a prolonged ripple of contagion in the rest of Latin America. There may be some turbulence in the region’s financial markets, but we suspect that the... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How and where the latest sanctions will hit the Russian economy The latest package of sanctions adopted by the EU and the US against Russia will affect the economy in different ways. In the short-term, restrictions on access to western capital markets for selected... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Tightening cycles have further to run The tightening cycles that began in Ghana and South Africa earlier this year continued in July and, in both cases, we think that further interest rate hikes are likely before the end of 2014. Ghana’s... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook North Africa getting back on its feet Three years on from the “Arab Spring” uprisings, the tide is turning in favour of the economies of North Africa. Admittedly, there are still many challenges, not least reining in large twin current... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Property price worries prompt rate hikes The central banks of New Zealand, the Philippines and Malaysia all tightened monetary policy last month amid signs that policymakers are becoming increasingly concerned that loose monetary policy is... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Balance of Payments (Q2) China’s balance of payments data for Q2 show substantial outflows on the financial account. But this does not mean that capital has been fleeing the country. Instead it is a reflection of the fact... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Interest rates heading in opposite directions The Russian central bank caused a surprise earlier this month by hiking its one-week repo rate in a pre-emptive move to limit capital outflows ahead of a fresh sanctions imposed by the US and EU. This... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sanctions on Russia a further blow to Finnish economy Finland’s close economic ties with neighbouring Russia mean that the EU’s stiffer sanctions on Russia announced yesterday are likely to deal another blow to the Finnish economy. Even if the direct... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What does the anti-corruption campaign mean for the economy? China’s anti-corruption campaign has claimed its biggest scalp to date with today’s formal announcement of an investigation into former Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang. Over the past 18 months... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Signs of recovery in North Africa Following a difficult few years, the latest data have provided further evidence that things are improving in North Africa. It looks like growth in both Tunisia and Egypt accelerated over the first... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Widening trade deficit due to strong domestic demand Although the trade deficit has widened in recent months, the increase is largely due to the strength of imports rather than the weakness of exports. Our calculations suggest that exports increased at... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
