Commodities Update Chinese commodity imports supported by stockbuilding Lower prices encouraged some opportunistic Chinese buying of commodities last month but the likelihood is that, in many cases, stocks were being replenished rather than this being a sign of a... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) Despite the fall in oil prices and the weakness of the economy, South Africa’s current account deficit remained large in Q3. If lower oil prices are maintained, as we expect, then the deficit should... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Nov.) The November trade data suggest that both external and domestic demand have softened somewhat. That said, we think that underlying conditions have held up better than the sharp falls in headline... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 revised) & Current Account (Oct) The second estimate of Q3 GDP showed that the economy shrank at an even faster pace than initially estimated. However, a return to growth in Q4 looks likely. 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Data Response - Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Trade (Oct.) The weaker than expected 10,700 decline in employment in November and the uptick in the unemployment rate to 6.6%, from 6.5%, can be forgiven since it comes after extraordinarily strong job reports in... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) October’s trade data will quite rightly do little to temper the optimism generated by the Employment Report, even though they suggest that net trade will make a slightly weaker contribution to GDP... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q3) The breakdown of euro-zone GDP in Q3 offered little encouragement that the region’s lacklustre economic recovery is about to pick up any meaningful momentum. 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Slump in oil price to support global growth in 2015 Global growth has cooled a bit in recent months. The expansion in the US and UK has continued, but China’s economy has slowed further, the euro-zone is stagnant and Japan is in recession. Looking... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay recovery finally gets underway At last, the UK’s real wage squeeze appears to be over. Annual growth in average weekly earnings excluding bonuses picked up from 1.2% to 1.8% in September and so exceeded the same month’s CPI... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The end of an era for globalisation and what it means for EM trade The period of sluggish EM export growth over the past few years is only partly linked to the weak state of global demand. Another key factor is that the wave of globalisation over the previous decade... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2014: Staying the course This was a budget in all but name – and a pre-election one at that. It was designed to be attractive to voters in the here and now, while not taking any risks with the public finances. 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Lower oil prices to tip euro-zone into deflation The recent further falls in global oil prices look set to push euro-zone consumer price inflation - already very low at just 0.3% in November - below zero in the early months of 2015. Provided that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Fall in oil prices to wipe out Gulf’s current account surplus The recent fall in oil prices, if sustained, will effectively wipe out the Gulf’s current account surplus. This shouldn’t pose too many problems for these economies. Even if oil prices fall further... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What low oil prices mean for sub-Saharan Africa Dramatic falls in oil prices have already taken a heavy toll on Nigeria, where the central bank was forced to devalue the naira and raise interest rates to slow the currency’s decline. As we show in... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly “Pricing to market” not the whole story Japanese exporters commonly “price to market”, meaning they don’t allow the impact of exchange rate shifts to feed through fully into the prices paid by their foreign customers. This has become an... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fall in oil prices pushes Venezuela even closer to default The writing is on the wall for Venezuela as falling oil prices exacerbate severe strains in the balance of payments. Both the government’s ability and willingness to service its foreign currency debt... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
