Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers beginning to spend their oil windfall Household spending has picked up sharply in response to the collapse in oil prices. In January, the growth rate of underlying retail sales in advanced economies reached its highest level since 2006... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Misery index on track for 50-year low Households are considerably better off than they were just a year or two ago. Indeed, the so-called “misery index” – a sum of the prevailing inflation and unemployment rates – has halved over the last... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures remain intense Although headline consumer price inflation rose from -0.6% to -0.3% in February, this was driven entirely by a rise in energy prices as oil prices reversed some of their recent falls. Core inflation... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What chance of progress with regional trade agreements? With the WTO talks stalled, hopes for significant progress in trade liberalisation are pinned on two large regional trade and investment pacts. As a result of renewed political pressures for an... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to cope with commodity collapse The plunge in the prices of the key commodity exports of both Australia and New Zealand late last year will soon filter through into weaker domestic activity, resulting in GDP growth this year slowing... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress The unveiling of a new, lower GDP growth target at the National People’s Congress would be an encouraging sign that the government is facing up to the continued slowdown in China’s sustainable rate of... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Outlook for metals brightening Metals prices have shown some of the largest gains in the past week, benefitting from some better news on the global economy including stronger manufacturing PMI surveys in China and the euro-zone... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada will still cut rates further Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz signalled last week that he thought the January interest rate cut was enough insurance against downside risks for the time being. That confirmed our existing view... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Where next for Indonesia’s current account? We see little prospect of an improvement in Indonesia’s current account over the next couple of years. This could leave the rupiah vulnerable when the Fed starts to tighten policy later this year... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is a recovery in exports finally underway? One feature that the recovery has been lacking for a long time is a pick-up in exports. But last week’s GDP figures offered some encouragement that the much-anticipated rebalancing of the economy is... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Indian budget likely to be a small positive for gold The Indian government’s budget, to be unveiled this weekend, is widely expected to include a cut in the import duty on gold. This should provide a further boost to the local market following... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Delay to Nigeria’s election puts naira under pressure The delay to Nigeria’s election and the controversy over the alleged misappropriation of oil revenues have cast the spotlight on the country’s weak governance. After the decision to delay the election... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Brief deflation won't hold up the Fed Although the CPI inflation rate dipped into negative territory in January, this bout of deflation is likely to be brief and it won't prevent the Fed from beginning to raise its policy rate from near... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Not much cause for concern in Mexico’s current account Mexico’s current account deficit narrowed to 2.1% of GDP on a four-quarter sum in Q4 and, with the worst of the falls in oil prices now behind us, we think it could narrow a touch further to about 1.5... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors shrug off risks from Greece Despite the resurgent risk of a Greek exit from the euro-zone, investors have so far remained relatively relaxed about the possible effect on emerging markets. Admittedly, there were further net... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about deflation? Emerging Asia has seen a sharp drop in inflationary pressures over the past few months. Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand are now experiencing deflation, while inflation is 1% y/y or below in Malaysia... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
