Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand is vulnerable to Australian slowdown The hit to New Zealand’s exports from the economic slowdown in Australia is going to be felt at almost the exact same time as the boost to activity from the domestic construction boom starts to fade... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) Mexican industry made a disappointing start to the year, but with demand from the US likely to strengthen and a weaker peso set to boost the external competitiveness of exporters, we still expect the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the pound riding for a fall? Sterling remains vulnerable to concerns about a hung parliament, EU exit and the current account deficit. But it is hard to tell when these concerns will bite, if they will at all. And in the meantime... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Greece & deflation re-ignite the euro-zone crisis? The combination of Greece’s renewed problems and the onset of deflation is a very toxic one for the euro-zone. At best, it is likely to keep economic growth in the region fairly subdued. At worst, it... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jan.) Following the substantial net trade boost to the economic recovery in Q4, January’s trade figures brought more good news on the economy’s rebalancing. But sterling’s recent strength suggests that the... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export downturn deepens The value of EM exports fell at the sharpest rate in more than five years in January. The timing of Chinese New Year was partly to blame, and an improvement is almost guaranteed in February, given the... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jan.) Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed substantially in January on the back of a fall in imports. But this wasn’t just due to lower energy imports – non-energy imports fell too. This adds to the... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Current Account (Q4) India’s current account deficit narrowed in Q4 and remains far smaller than in 2013 when the rupee plunged to record lows against the US dollar. With this improvement set to be maintained, there is... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity import data still distorted by holidays China’s commodity import volumes fell in February but this was hardly surprising given the long mid-month holiday. We expect demand to start recovering in March, boosted by low prevailing prices. 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Feb.) Export growth has been strong so far this year, even after adjusting for the New Year volatility that led to surge in growth last month. That said, rapid trade-weighted renminbi appreciation and a... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Revised) & Current Account (Jan) While the second estimate of Q4 GDP was not as weak as the headlines would suggest, we still think that the Bank of Japan will announce more stimulus next month. 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade & Building Permits (Jan.) The jump in Canada's trade deficit to a two-and-a-half year high of $2.5bn in January, from $1.2bn, was principally due to a price-related 23% m/m drop in the value of crude oil exports. 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 295,000 increase in payroll employment in February (consensus forecast 235,000) and the further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.5% illustrate that, even if wage growth is still subdued, the Fed... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Without tighter rules, migration to stay strong We doubt that the recent strength in net migration will be temporary. The recent rise has been primarily driven by increased immigration from Europe, reflecting its weak economy compared to the UK and... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Export strength unlikely to last There are some reasons to believe that the recent strength in export volumes is the result of improvements in competitiveness linked to currency weakness. However, the trade data tend to be volatile... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Venezuela in crisis, but EM risks generally low Our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI) reports that the overall level of emerging market (EM) risk remains at a decade low, but that concerns remain about a handful of countries. Venezuela... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
