UK Economics Weekly Hawks ruffling feathers but rate hike still a way off Given the air of uncertainty hanging over Europe, it is perhaps surprising that markets haverecently brought forwards their expectations for the timing of the first hike in official interest ratesin... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Greek crisis casts fresh cloud over outlook The deepening crisis in Greece has been met with a muted reaction in the financial markets inEmerging Europe and there are few signs that it has had any impact on economic activity in theregion... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian policymakers unlikely to follow the Fed The decision by Colombia’s central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.50% last night was not a surprise – but what was more notable was that, given the economy’s large current account deficit... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Weak EM exports continue to drag on world trade volumes World trade volumes edged up in April, but this follows a run of very weak data and left the year-on-year growth rate at a historically low pace. Stronger global growth during the rest of the year... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK faces bigger external threats than a China slowdown The UK has become significantly more exposed in recent years to the Chinese economy, which has made a poor start to 2015. But this shouldn’t cause the UK economy too many problems – Greece remains by... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s external adjustment has further to run While Spanish exports continue to perform well, imports are also surging as domestic demand recovers. Without further competitiveness gains, Spain’s current account risks falling back into deficit. 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Foreign investment into Egypt showing signs of a revival The slowdown in Egypt’s economy since the start of the year has been disappointing, but there are at least encouraging signs that the government’s reform programme is starting to bear fruit. Indeed... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weak EM exports keep concerns over global demand alive Most of the weakness in emerging market exports in recent months can be pinned on the impact of lower commodity prices and the strength of the US dollar. But there are lingering concerns surrounding... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (May) The trade deficit narrowed slightly in May, but should creep higher in the second half of the year as the weaker yen pushes up import costs. 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Chile’s current account improvement Chile is the only country in Latin America that has managed to reduce its current account deficit since the “Taper Tantrum” of 2013, which makes the economy less exposed to tightening external... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (May) India's trade data for May are a mixed bag, with the trade deficit narrowing despite another contraction in export growth. The big picture, however, is that India's external position is far less a... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) April’s euro-zone trade data suggested that the euro’s depreciation is finally starting to boost net exports. 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf countries weathering the storm, but growth to weaken The Gulf economies have weathered the storm created by low oil prices relatively well this year, with foreign exchange reserves having been drawn down to sustain spending. Large savings mean that this... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Apr.) Even though Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed in April, the bigger picture is that it remains large. And the composition of external financing is a key vulnerability, with foreign direct... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities diminishing India’s current account deficit narrowed in Q1 and, along with the pick-up in net FDI inflows, this has helped to boost the overall balance of payments position to its largest surplus since 2008. With... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Trade agreement promising, but no immediate impact Media coverage of Africa’s “Tripartite Free Trade Agreement” has exaggerated the pact’s effect on economic integration, which will be limited by piecemeal implementation and crumbling infrastructure... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
