Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) May’s euro-zone goods trade data suggested that the depreciation of the euro over thepast year is still only providing a modest boost to export growth. 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Iran and the West make a deal, but stumbling blocks remain Today’s announcement of the deal reached between Iran and the West should, eventually, allow Iranian oil exports to return to their previous levels. However, the deal could still be disrupted by... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Weak shilling prompts rate hike Today’s decision to hike interest rates by 150bp reflects the Bank of Uganda’s concerns about currency weakness. But with export prices subdued and political risk rising, we expect that the shilling... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Long-term outlook still positive Kenya has been in the headlines for all the wrongreasons over the past few months, and its economy is struggling. But while the country faces realproblems, we still believe that the economy holds... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) The June trade data are relatively upbeat. A further recovery in external demand pushed up export growth to a four-month high. Meanwhile, although the fall in commodity prices late last year has kept... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly New Greek bailout would just delay the inevitable There appears to be a chance that Greece and its creditors will come to a last minute agreement on a new bailout which avoids an imminent Greek departure from the currency union. But there are many... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weaker yen starts to restrain import volumes Almost three years after the yen started its steep fall, there is still little evidence of any boost to export volumes. Instead, a weaker exchange rate has mostly improved the non-energy trade balance... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade & Construction Output (May) Good news on the trade deficit in May was tempered by signs the construction sector’s recovery is struggling to get back on track. But since both sets of statistics are erratic, we would caution... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What's happening to global imbalances? The fall in oil prices and the appreciation of the US dollar will cause global imbalances to widen over the coming years. China’s surplus could rise up the political agenda once more while the euro... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Why has Thailand’s export growth been so weak? Thailand has struggled with disappointing export growth over the past couple of years, with subdued global demand and real exchange rate appreciation only telling part of the story. Other factors such... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (May) The current account surplus jumped in May, but we think it will fall again in coming months. 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) The unexpected widening of the trade deficit in May is further evidence that, after contracting in the first quarter, the economy probably shrank further in the second quarter. In other words, Canada... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The modest rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $41.9bn in May, from $40.7bn, means that net exports are on track to be a very small drag on overall second-quarter GDP growth, which we still think... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish exports to struggle despite weaker krona Sweden’s exporters are finally starting to feel the benefits of the krona’s decline over the past couple of years. But firms’ desire to widen profit margins, weak global demand and uncertainty about... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China’s impact on the world Structural changes in China’s economy are transforming its economic relationship with the rest of the world, as domestic demand shifts from investment to consumption, outbound tourism surges and the... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish exports to struggle despite weaker krona Sweden’s exporters are finally starting to feel the benefits of the krona’s decline over the past couple of years. But firms’ desire to widen profit margins, weak global demand and uncertainty about... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
