Global Economics Chart Pack Greek crisis a sideshow for world economy The global economy is likely to expand at a decent pace in the second half ofthe year, despite escalating tensions in Greece and the recent gyrations in China’s equity market. Business surveys have... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Budget to leave economy still facing big fiscal squeeze As far as the UK is concerned, the main point to take from last week’s Greek developments wasthat there are still limited signs of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone. So far, so not-too-badthen... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Nai or Oxi? Sunday’s Greek referendum result looks likely to be very close. But regardless of whether the outcome is Nai or Oxi, unless any resulting deal includes a substantial form of debt relief, the crisis... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery in real wages looks sustainable The latest labour market data provided further evidence that the recovery in wages now has momentum. Indeed, the headline (three-month average of the annual) growth rate in average weekly earnings... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wider Australian trade deficit not that bad for Q2 GDP Since most of the recent sharp widening in Australia’s trade deficit is because commodity prices have reduced export values rather than due to outright falls in export volumes, net trade probably... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Market stability highlights improvement in external position Indian markets have been stable over the past few days, even in comparison to the muted reaction in global market to events in Greece. Looking ahead, even if the worsening situation there causes... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi external position deteriorating even before drop in oil prices The plunge in oil prices over the past year has forced Saudi Arabia to dip into its foreign exchange reserves, but one point that is often overlooked is that the Kingdom’s external position had been... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US stocks of oil unexpectedly rose last week after eight consecutive weeks of falls. However, stocks of gasoline resumed their downward trend. 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Contagion from Greece limited for now Greece’s crisis escalated further in June, culminating in a default to the IMF, the imposition of capital controls and the expiry of the second bailout programme. In response, Greek 10 year government... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China still controls its REE exports, despite “looser” regime Despite “loosening” its rare earths (REE) export regime, China will continue to control global supply. As such, our view remains that REE prices are unlikely to fall much further. 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) The national accounts showed that the recovery has more momentum than previously thought. And while the fall in household saving and huge current account deficit suggested that recent growth has... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Risk of “Grexit” hangs over Asia’s export outlook The direct links between Emerging Asia and Greece are very limited. Exports to Greece account for only a tiny proportion of regional GDP, while banking sector ties are negligible. What matters more... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Private consumption after a currency crisis Contrary to conventional wisdom, economic recoveries following a large devaluation have not always resulted from a surge in net exports. Instead, they have often been driven by rising consumption... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global fallout of “Grexit” (revisited) If, as seems increasingly likely, Greece defaults and exits the euro-zone within the coming months, the implications for the world economy should be fairly modest. Indeed, it could even turn out to be... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A primer on the implications of “Grexit” for Emerging Europe With Greece’s bailout talks postponed (again), the country’s membership of the euro-zone is lookingprecarious. In this Update, we provide a primer on what “Grexit” might mean for Emerging Europe. 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (May) A sharp rise in mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in May could have been driven by fears of a further correction in Chinese equities. While imports from India were up 16% y/y in May, they... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
