Europe Economics Update Current account adjustments not just cyclical The improvement in most peripheral countries’ current account positions since the financial crisis should not be fully reversed as their economies recover. However, if and when Greece returns to... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will surging external debt trigger a dollar crisis? Although America’s current account deficit is still a modest 2.4% of GDP, well below the 6.3% peak reached in late 2005, net external debt has more than quadrupled since mid-2007. Liabilities to... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) The Quarterly National Accounts confirmed that the economic recovery maintained a strong pace in Q2. And although the latest business surveys suggest that growth may have moderated in Q3, we expect... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s crisis deepens Brazil has slipped deeper into crisis over the past month. The slump in the real economy has gathered pace, with our GDP Tracker now suggesting the output could have contracted by up to 4% y/y in Q3... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Reality bites Growth in the Gulf economies has held up well this year, but policymakers cannot delay the adjustment to low oil prices much longer. Tighter fiscal policy looms. Large savings and low debt levels mean... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Reasons for optimism are few and far between The past month has seen a raft of very bad news from key African economies. New government figures show that growth slowed in Q2 in Ghana and that South Africa’s economy actually contracted. Forward... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s migrant crisis: how might CEE be affected? There are few signs that Europe’s migrant crisis has had much economic impact on Central Eastern Europe (CEE). However, if recent border controls were to become a permanent fixture, the region could... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam – a rare bright spot At a time when growth in most of Emerging Asia is slowing, Vietnam stands out as one of the region’s few bright spots. Although we expect the country’s strong performance to continue over the next... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Domestic strength counters external weakness GDP growth is now on track for a solid 2.5% gain in 2015. We had previously anticipated that growth would accelerate to nearer 3.0% in 2016 but, given the weakness of global demand and the dollar’s... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit & the City: Long-run benefits may justify upfront cost A British exit from the EU would probably hurt the City in the short term, but it would not spelldisaster. The City’s competitive advantage is founded on more than just unfettered access to thesingle... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Alarm bells sound in key economies Worries about slowing growth in China and tightening monetary policy in America have dented some of the optimism surrounding African economies. But the consensus is still far too bullish about the... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: where did it all go wrong? Brazil’s economic vulnerabilities have been brought into sharper focus in recent weeks after (yet another) slump in local financial markets. In this Focus we revisit key aspects of our research over... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Slowdown becomes a little sharper Although we wouldn’t recommend placing too much weight on the quarterly rate of GDP growth in any one quarter, the respective 0.2% and 0.4% rises in Australia and New Zealand in the second quarter... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Exporters in emerging Asia and US still struggling The volume of world trade, which has been sluggish all year, fell outright in July. The latest weakness has been concentrated in emerging economies, and Asia in particular, but exports from the US... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central & South Eastern Europe a rare EM bright spot Emerging Europe remains a region of two halves. Its two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – will continue to struggle over the coming years as cyclical downturns compound long-standing structural... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria: low oil prices force authorities into action Algeria was ill-prepared to confront a period of low oil prices and, as we warned might happen, the authorities have reacted by letting the dinar weaken, while a sharp fiscal squeeze is now on the... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
